The Extended Outlook For Accuracy: Ha!

Local yokel weathercasters got their shorts in a twister a year ago after Bill Hockett put their forecasting skills on a par with carnival palm readers.

Today, Hockett offers a heartfelt apology: “I’m sure palm readers have a lot more experience,” says the Spokane market analyst, breaking into a belly laugh.

Results are in from Hockett’s weather challenge that examined the accuracy of our meteorological witch doctors over the last 11 months.

Hockett found 48-hour forecasts by the media to be far less reliable than a man who senses shifting weather patterns because of being conked on the noggin with a chunk of railroad tie.

“My family calls me Barometer Man,” says Darin Eilerman, 34.

Hockett’s company, Critical Data, faithfully compared Barometer Man’s predictions with those of KXLY, KHQ, KREM and The Spokesman-Review.

Eilerman didn’t miss a day checking in with Critical Data. He scored an impressive 88.5-percent accuracy rating.

So-called weather experts - with all their Doppler-doodle radar hooey - were right only 69.5 percent of the time.

“Let me put it this way,” says Hockett. “Would you go to a surgeon who has a 69.5-percent chance of not leaving a tool inside you?”

All this hilarity started over a wet Mercedes.

One day last June, Hockett drove his vintage ‘57 roadster to work with the top down after the weather dweebs unanimously called for “sunny and clear.”

Noah probably saw less water. The mass-forecasting flop turned the man’s classic into a waterbed on wheels.

Hockett, an insatiably curious man, cursed the meteorologists. “I don’t know of any other line of work where you can be so blatantly wrong and still keep your job.”

Columnists excluded, naturally.

And so Hockett set off to see if the wizards miss more than hit. He shopped around for an unorthodox forecaster to pit against the professionals and found Eilerman.

That man acquired his skill the hard way.

He nearly died in 1993 while driving back from the Spokane Interstate Fair. A truck rolled over a two-pound piece of railroad tie, flipping it back through the windshield and into Eilerman’s face.

As his smashed skull slowly healed, Eilerman discovered that changes in atmospheric pressure would trigger headaches. The more dramatic the coming weather, the more massive the misery.

“It’s nice to know the weather, but not this way,” he says. “Every time there’s a clear sky it’s like I’ve been reborn.”

At the Critical Data Christmas party, Hockett witnessed firsthand the powers of Barometer Man.

Midway through the festivities, Eilerman turned ghastly gray and told his host a snow storm was on the way.

“He went from laughing and joking to being in so much pain he had to leave,” says Hockett. “Sure enough, it just dumped snow the next day.”

Hockett expects gale-force whining over the results of his test. But he insists he gave the media every benefit of the doubt.

He tracked the accuracy of each forecast, including those of barbecue grillman Tom Sherry, automobile pitchbabe Laura Ashley and Tim out-on-his-keister Adams until it became apparent they were all basically the same. (He noted differences whenever they occurred.) The study only examined two-day forecasts for conditions: snow, rain, wind, sunshine, fog…. “It was a tremendous amount of work that we realized no profit from,” says Hockett.

In the end, the analyst satisfied his curiosity. Media forecasts for tomorrow’s weather are usually pretty good - about 85 percent. Beyond that, the accuracy rating drops like hail.

“They should carry disclaimers,” he says. “If I were going to plan an outdoor reunion, a company picnic or a wedding, forget the weather forecasts, I’d call Darin.”

, DataTimes