Talk Of Arafat Successor Ticklish Healthy Or Not, There’s Worry For Peace Process

Yasser Arafat has survived guerrilla warfare, assassination attempts and a desert plane crash. His aides say there is nothing wrong with him - “healthy as a horse” is the favored phrase.

But a flurry of media speculation on Arafat’s health, combined with his age and workaholic ways, have raised concerns about the Middle East peace process should anything happen to the 68-year-old Palestinian leader.

“There has been no preparation; there’s no clear successor,” said Barry Rubin, a longtime Arafat watcher. “The Palestinians have to start thinking about their political future, and they and everyone else have to start thinking about the implications.”

If Arafat died or were incapacitated, selecting a new leader could be a long and bitterly divisive struggle for the Palestinians, taking months or even years. Under such circumstances, meaningful peace negotiations would be difficult if not impossible.

In an editorial Monday, the Yediot Aharonot newspaper said Arafat, who spent decades waging bloody war against Israel, is now its partner in peace. Without him, it said, “a power struggle would break out for the Palestinian leadership whose end result might be worse.”

Arafat’s health has been the subject of speculation for years, but talk of a potential succession crisis intensified after Israel radio and other news media reported that he had fainted Friday night during a closed session at the Arab League economic conference in Cairo.

Earlier that day, Israel’s Channel 2 television reported that Arafat is suffering from a severe illness that causes tremors of his face and hands, but does not affect his mental condition.

Aides to Arafat dismissed the reports. Palestinian Planning Minister Nabil Shaath said at the Arab League meeting Arafat was “under the spotlight … and everyone could see that he was in good health.”

Ahmed Tibi, an Arafat adviser who is also a physician, said the Palestinian leader is not suffering from any illness, and that he exercises regularly and eats well. Arafat often works into the early morning, sometimes exhausting much younger associates. “He’s very strong,” said Tibi.

Accounts from some Palestinian sources of the Arab League incident suggest that Arafat did not actually pass out, but simply stopped talking, slumped in his chair and said he was tired.

Rubin, a senior researcher at BarIlan University, said regardless of precisely what happened in Cairo, “we have to think of Arafat’s mortality as a political factor.”

Despite brushes with death, Arafat has always refused to groom a successor, apparently viewing any leader-in-waiting as a potential threat.

Arafat’s leadership style is highly autocratic. He has maneuvered the Palestinian parliament into a subordinate role. He plays rivals off against one another, and is loath to delegate even minor decisionmaking.

Those around him have no wish to risk his wrath by talking about possible successors. Adviser Tibi refused to even address the topic.