Sluggers May Knock Maris Out Of Park Latest Round Of Big-League Expansion Fuels Race To Break ‘61 Homer Mark

Mark McGwire listens to the question all of baseball is asking, then launches into it like a batting-practice fastball.

Will expansion mean this is the season someone breaks Roger Maris’ home run record?

“Yes, I believe it can be done,” McGwire said.

“After last year, I’d have to say ‘yeah, it could.’ You look at what Griffey and I did, and what we both went through - really atrocious Julys - and we still finished with 58 and 56,” he said. “I’m not saying I can do it. I’m not saying I can’t. But a season has to be absolutely perfect for it to happen.”

And with the addition of the Arizona Diamondbacks, the Tampa Bay Devil Rays and a bunch of pitchers better suited for Triple-A - many of them perhaps playing for the World Series-champion Florida Marlins - this could be it.

Fans will likely spend the whole summer tracking McGwire and Ken Griffey Jr., comparing and charting their progress toward Maris’ mark of 61.

Even before opening day, here are some numbers to chew on. The last time baseball expanded, in 1993, home runs shot up almost 25 percent. Also, in the last three years, McGwire has averaged a home run every 8.6 at-bats, meaning that if the St. Louis slugger bats 600 times … well, go ahead and do the math.

But there’s lots of time for that. For now, there’s plenty to ponder before the first pitch on March 31.

As in, who will win more games - the Marlins, the Devil Rays, the Diamondbacks or that other new N.L. team, the Milwaukee Brewers?

Maybe the Marlins, barely. A few days after completing their record, 5-year rise from expansion losers to World Series champs, they began a breakup of historic proportions.

Out were Moises Alou, Kevin Brown, Robb Nen, Devon White and several others, a total of 12 players from their 25-man postseason roster, all shed in a salary purge. World Series MVP Livan Hernandez is left, but the rest of the rotation includes Felix Heredia, Brian Meadows, Rafael Medina and Eric Ludwick.

For those wondering, there was such a breakup once before.

In 1914, Philadelphia Athletics owner-manager Connie Mack refused to match salaries with the upstart Federal League and lost future Hall of Famers Home Run Baker, Eddie Collins, Chief Bender and Eddie Plank. The result was predictable - the A’s went from A.L. champs with a 99-53 record to worst in the majors at 43-109.

Now, clearly, it takes money to compete. Sure, a young team like the Pittsburgh Pirates might slip through once in a while, but big bucks - like the $75 million that Boston paid N.L. Cy Young winner Pedro Martinez or the top dollars Rupert Murdoch might dole out to his new Dodgers - are more likely to pay off in October.

“If the stakes are too high, you better leave,” Arizona owner Jerry Colangelo said. “The little guy is out. The day of the old entrepreneur is over. Very few people can play the game anymore. It costs too much to buy in and too much to run.”

Colangelo certainly isn’t being cheap. Already, Arizona has lured Matt Williams, Andy Benes, Jay Bell and manager Buck Showalter to the $365 million Bank One Ballpark for its first season in the N.L. West.

The Devil Rays haven’t done too badly, either. The new A.L. East team has Wade Boggs, Wilson Alvarez and Roberto Hernandez.

None of baseball’s 12 expansion teams since 1961 has finished within 20 games of .500.

Along with the new teams, two others are in new places.

The Brewers became the first 20th-century major-league team to change leagues when they shifted from the A.L. Central to the N.L. Central. First order of business: teaching the Milwaukee pitchers how to hit.

Brewers pitchers went 0-for-18 in interleague games last year, and their early spring practice did not bode well. One pitcher broke a bone in his hand merely swinging.

The Detroit Tigers also moved, going from the A.L. East to the A.L. Central as part of very limited geographical realignment.