Big West’S Best? Big Question

Big West preview

The coaches don’t know what’s going to happen. The media is clueless (Insert your favorite punch line here).

It’s one of the Big West Conference’s most endearing qualities. Every year, one unfortunate team is propped up as the favorite by the know-it-alls. Then a darkhorse stomps all over the pundits, wins the Humanitarian Bowl and dances into the off-season. See Idaho, 1998; and Boise State, 1999.

2000? Don’t ask.

“Because of how small (the conference) is and the travel problems you face, anybody can beat anybody on a certain day,” said Boise State coach Dirk Koetter, whose Broncos are saddled with the burden of being this year’s preseason darling.

Take 1999, for example. BSU lost to North Texas, which would go on to finish last in the conference. BSU would rout the rest of the Big West, save a seven-point win at Utah State, and win the championship.

Along with BSU, Idaho and New Mexico State have the most returning talent. Arkansas State merits consideration because of proven skill-position players. Utah State and North Texas figure to slug it out for last place, which means one will probably have a dream season and. … well, you know the story.

If Idaho can survive a rugged early schedule, new coach Tom Cable says, “I like our chances a whole lot.”

He’ll like his chances even more if his defense answers the bell.

“The bottom line is who can play defense in this league,” Cable said. “Just looking at the film, I’ve seen if you can get stops and turnovers and give your offense some short fields, you can be pretty good offensively.”

Koetter boils the chase down to a factor he has little control over.

“So much can change from an injury perspective,” he said. “Whoever is the healthiest probably will win it.”

In other words, anything’s possible.

In predicted order of finish:

Boise State

Head coach: Dirk Koetter, third year

Record at BSU: 16-8

Record in 1999: 10-3, 5-1 Big West, first

Returning starters: 14

Broncos steamrolled the rest of the conference last year behind a high-powered offense and an underrated defense. Many offensive weapons return, but receiver Jay Swillie has been suspended. Quarterback Bart Hendricks went from whipping boy his first two seasons to conference offensive MVP last year. He figures to put up big numbers again.

The line is BSU’s biggest defensive concern. If that unit comes through, Broncos might repeat as champs.

Idaho

Head coach: Tom Cable, first year

Record at Idaho: 0-0

Record in 1999: 7-4, 4-2, second

Returning starters: 18

Vandals face double trouble right out of the chute. They’re trying to learn a new offense and defense and they face a daunting schedule (Washington, Oregon, Washington State, West Virginia).

UI has the most returning starters in the conference, but won’t reach its potential unless running game proves itself and defensive line can do its job. If those things occur, Idaho should challenge for crown.

New Mexico State

Head coach: Tony Samuel, fourth year

Record at NMSU: 11-22

Record in 1999: 6-5, 3-3, tied for third

Returning starters: 13

Aggies are coming off their first winning season since 1992. They must show consistency, though, to rate as a contender. The defense has made steady strides under Samuel, but the offense went from scoring 35 points against Arizona State last year to totaling only 64 points in the next four games.

The running game should be potent, but emergence of the passing game is what made NMSU a handful to defend the last two seasons. Aggies must find replacements because last season’s top three receivers are gone.

Arkansas State

Coach: Joe Hollis, fourth year

Record at Arkansas State: 10-24

Record in 1999: 4-7, 3-3, tied for third

Returning starters: 14

The Indians could be this year’s feel-good story. Veteran quarterback Cleo Lemon is the school’s all-time passing leader but he’s coming off a so-so season. Running back Jonathan Adams has tremendous talent, but must put up numbers to match.

The defense is young with only one returning starter in the front seven. Arkansas State could make a move for top of standings, but unproven defenders must come through.

Utah State

Coach: Mick Dennehy, first year

Record at Utah State: 0-0 (39-12, four years at Montana)

Record in 1999: 4-7, 3-3, tied for third

Returning starters: 11

The Aggies hired Mick Dennehy to turn around their floundering program. He’ll have his hands full as they lose all-everything running back Demario Brown and the passing game was flawed last year.

Linebackers Brent Passey, Blake Eagal and Cade Smith, a former Vandal, could rival Idaho’s as the conference’s best. And that’s without ‘99 starting middle linebacker Tony Newson, who will redshirt while rehabilitating a shoulder injury.

North Texas

Coach: Darrell Dickey, third year

Record at North Texas: 5-17

Record in 1999: 2-9, 1-5, seventh

Returning starters: 12

The story goes that Darrell Dickey dribbled a drive during a golf outing at the Big West media kickoff in July. Cracked a sportswriter: “That looked like one of North Texas’ passes.” Dickey, who appreciates a good one-liner, volunteered the story the next day to a cluster of media. Problem is, there is a lot of truth in that joke. The Mean Green just can’t seem to get a handle on the concept known as the forward pass.

Richard Bridges will attempt to jump-start the passing game. He was only 54 of 150 last season. He will be flanked by Ja’Quay Wilburn, perhaps the top running back in the conference.