We Have Some New Projections

Sat., Nov. 11, 2000

Jim Kershner The Spokesman-Revi

As I watched the election results on TV Tuesday night and saw how accurately they “called” Florida for Gore (then for Bush, then Gore, then Bush), it occurred to me: Why don’t we apply these same sophisticated “mathematical” projections to our daily lives?

So I have crunched the numbers and I am pleased to tell you that I am now able to “call” your life for you.

Let’s begin with the key projection. Based on returns as we know them, I am prepared to say that you will survive the entire day without shuffling off this mortal coil. I took into account the volatile “runaway train” factor and the always problematic “safe-falling-on-your-head” variable, but these were outweighed by one big positive: If you made it this far into the morning, statistics indicate that you will survive the rest of the day, if not the entire weekend.

Now, let’s see if we can make some other “calls”:

* Your child’s soccer game. I am not prepared to “call” this one quite yet. You will have to go to the game and see what happens in the first half. If your child’s team is up by three or more goals, I will then “give” the game to your child’s team, thus saving everyone the trouble of playing the second half. Your child might be disappointed, since he or she hopes to score a goal in the second half. Based on our projections, however, your child won’t.

* Today’s weather. We are prepared to make the following projection: Today will be rainy and windy with partial clearing in the afternoon.

This is based on historical projections, not any actual meteorology. In other words, we looked at what happened last Saturday and we projected this out to every Saturday in November.

* Your financial portfolio. The markets are closed today, which takes the always unpredictable stock market out of the equation. However, based on my own financial records extrapolated out to the population as a whole, I can project that your checkbook balance is $27.82, with a margin of error of $47 either way. I can also predict that you will go out today and write $459.71 in checks to (in order of increasing probability) Avista, Albertson’s, the Washington State Liquor Control Commission and the Stateline Topless Showgirls Gentleman’s Club.

I have one further “portfolio” projection, based on Spokane-area income statistics: You don’t actually have a portfolio.

* Your automobile. I am prepared to make the following call. Your car needs expensive brake work. Every car always needs expensive brake work. (Source: universal experience.)

* The WSU Cougars. The Cougars will lose, in a heartbreaker, in overtime, because that’s what always happens. (That call was easier than “Texas for Bush.”)

* Your charisma and charm. Exit polls of your teenagers show that you are “embarrassing,” “uncool” and “basically a dork.” This is accurate to a 97 percent degree of certainty.

* Your golf game. I have this astonishing prediction: You will shoot a miracle round of 18 under par.

This is based on the “on-track-to” formula which allows you to project your one-hole score to its 18-hole conclusion after bouncing a shot off the ball-washer, over a cart path, and into the hole for a birdie on No. 1.

* Your love life. I have the following call: Your spouse is hanging in there for the time being, but he/she is beginning to wonder if he/she made a mistake. This is based on exit polling of your previous spouses.

* And finally, the rest of your life. I am delighted to make the following call: Your life will be happy, prosperous and full of good fortune. The Year of the Monkey will be especially fruitful. This is based on an analysis of 832 fortune cookie slips.

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