Few 30-plus RBs held their value

We warned you prior to your drafts in bold and underline that 30-year-old running backs are too risky to invest in because of the likelihood of injury and performance declines. Did the geriatric RBs of 2004 defy history?

On opening day, there were nine starters aged 30 and older. Priest Holmes (knee) missed half the season. Through 14 weeks, Marshall Faulk (knee) had more than 15 carries three times and scored four TDs. Stephen Davis (knee) finished the year with 24 carries. Curtis Martin has set a Jets record for TDs and yardage. Charlie Garner (knee) finish with 111 rushing yards and no TDs. Tyrone Wheatley (assorted injuries) could only muster 85 carries. Eddie George averaged a paltry 3.3 per pop and was sent to the glue factory in favor of colt-like Julius Jones. Emmitt Smith (assorted injuries) averaged 3.3 per carry the second half with three TDs. Jerome Bettis has 13 TDs despite not getting more than 15 carries until Week 9, when 29-year-old starter Duce Staley predictably broke down.

Two of nine generated a profit and another (Emmitt) wasn’t a losing investment. This is only slightly better than the 75 percent we predicted would be busts. Remember those odds when you’re considering cueing up a 30-year-old RB at your next draft.

Unfortunately, many leagues still decide their champion Week 17. So we’ll wait until next week to wrap up the season with predictions on which players will see the biggest movement in their values next season. And we’ll offer details on drafting and scoring a fantasy league that will maximize your enjoyment of the NFL playoffs.

Buy

Chad Pennington (QB, Jets): This goes for Curtis Martin, too, as the Jets will be playing for their season indoors, where Pennington is 33 of 40 with seven TD passes in his career. The Rams have given up about 2,000 rushing yards this year, so Martin should continue to defy Father Time.

Mushin Muhammad (WR, Panthers): The Saints are coming off a good defensive effort, but aren’t facing a rookie QB this week and are 28th in yards per attempt with 22 TD passes allowed. Jake Delhomme, one of our preseason favorites, has 20 TD passes the past nine games with 12 to Muhammad, the best WR in fantasy football during this stretch.

Sell

Corey Dillon (RB, Patriots): Note that Dillon will be 30 at the start of next season. But he’s downgraded here despite facing the Charmin-soft 49ers front seven because the Patriots are locked into the AFC No. 2 seed. So Dillon, who has battled through a variety of leg injuries, will likely make a token appearance if he plays at all.

Marvin Harrison (WR, Colts): With the Colts locked into the No. 3 seed and Peyton Manning already owning the season record for most TD passes, the Colts offense will likely mail it in against a Denver defense playing to continue its season. Harrison is viewed as a disappointment by many because he’s no longer the Colts’ clear No. 1 receiver, but the big plays have still been there (14 TD catches this year).

Hold

Dominick Davis (RB, Texans): We’ve been wrong about him from a fantasy standpoint, as he’s piled up nine second-half TDs despite averaging under four yards per carry. A Texans’ scout I spoke to this weekend was noticeably hesitant to praise Davis and confirmed Houston is “very interested” in the Jets’ Lamont Jordan, who will likely be an unrestricted free agent in February. Davis finishes his season at home against the injury-ravaged Browns.