Oscar’s judgment day

Oscar isn’t crazy about Jesus or politics, but he may have to reckon with both this Academy Awards season.

Were it not for “The Passion of the Christ” and “Fahrenheit 9/11,” Hollywood would be suffering at the box office this year. Combined, the two films – both made outside the studio system – have contributed nearly a half-billion dollars in U.S. ticket sales.

And with a fall film slate that offers no shoo-in blockbusters such as “The Lord of the Rings” or “Harry Potter,” Mel Gibson’s “Passion” and Michael Moore’s “Fahrenheit” may remain the standouts at year’s end.

“It’s hard to overestimate the impact those two movies had,” says Abby Wike of the industry-tracking firm Reelsource. “We’d be hurting this year at the box office were it not for them, because most of the big-studio films simply haven’t done that well.”

But will Hollywood – more specifically, the approximately 5,800 voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences – return the favor?

Both films – particularly “The” “Passion,” which many in Hollywood believe is anti-Semitic – face uphill battles just nabbing nominations in Oscar’s big categories, including best picture and best director.

“These are hot-button movies for a lot of people … but I don’t think they can or will be ignored,” says film historian and “Entertainment Tonight” film critic Leonard Maltin.

History certainly isn’t on either film’s side. A documentary has never been nominated for best picture. And the academy hasn’t recognized a biblical story for nearly half a century: 1956’s “The Ten Commandments” garnered a best-picture nomination, and 1959’s “Ben-Hur” won the award.

“Passion” unofficially began its Oscar campaign Tuesday when the film was released on home video. While DVD/VHS sales are expected to top 10 million, distributor Newmarket Films and Gibson’s Icon Productions say they have yet to formulate an awards strategy.

This year, like last, the Oscar ceremony will be in February instead of March, which will condense the studios’ campaigning. Ballots are mailed to academy members Dec. 27; the ceremony is scheduled for Feb. 27.

The issue for “Passion” and “Fahrenheit,” says Newmarket chief Bob Berney, is whether academy members will “give these films a chance based on their own merit. I hope they can look past the controversies to weigh them simply as films.”

Backed by Oscar veterans Bob and Harvey Weinstein, “Fahrenheit” stands a better chance of a best-picture nod than “Passion,” most industry observers say.

“You have to give ‘Fahrenheit’ the edge right now,” says Tom O’Neil, author of “Movie Awards” (Perigee, 2001) and handicapper for the awards Web site GoldDerby.com. “It’s got a veteran team behind it and appeals to liberal Hollywood’s political tendencies.”

But both movies, he says, could play on the sympathies of academy voters.

” ‘Passion’ has this virtue to it that could placate Hollywood’s conscience,” O’Neil says. “Who knows? Maybe they’ll vote for both to balance their political activism with their hedonist lifestyles.”

Hollywood has no problem with religion, per se. With heavy religious overtones, “Chariots of Fire” (1981), “Gandhi” (1982) and “Schindler’s List” (1993) won best-picture awards.

Biblical tales are another matter. And Gibson’s orthodox Christian story, which some say blames Jews for Jesus’ death, may not sit well with academy members who are Jewish.

On the other hand, O’Neil says, “Passion” embraces some elements that Oscar loves. “There’s violence, there’s history, there’s one man against the system,” he says. “Those are staples of best-picture winners.”

There’s also $370 million in “Passion’s” pocket, making it the second-highest-grossing movie of the year behind behind “Shrek 2,” which has earned $437 million.

But many times, big ticket sales count for nothing when it comes to Oscar. Recent winners such as “The English Patient” (1996), “Shakespeare in Love” (1998)” “and “American Beauty” (1999) did not have large success at the box office until after earning Oscars.

Entertainment marketing strategist Eric Hutchinson says Newmarket’s best chances may be to lobby for smaller awards, such as cinematography or best actor for Jim Caviezel, who played Jesus.

“When a movie gets so consumed with controversy, it can scare an awards committee off,” Hutchinson says. “Oscar voters often would rather throw a movie a bone, like a lesser award, than have to give it its biggest recognition.”

But Newmarket’s Berney believes “The Passion” deserves serious consideration across the board.

“If you peel everything away, we had a very accomplished film,” Berney says. “From the director to the actors to the photography and cinematography, this was simply a good movie.

“From a commercial standpoint, the awards aren’t very important; we aren’t going to really sell more tickets because of the Oscars. But it would be a shame if the filmmakers weren’t recognized because of something like controversy or the news it made.”

“Fahrenheit” earned less than a third of the “Passion” haul, but with $117 million in U.S. ticket sales, it has more than quintupled the previous record box office for a documentary – the $21.6 million raked in by Moore’s “Bowling for Columbine.”

“Fahrenheit” is scheduled to be released on DVD on Oct. 5. The film’s distribution consortium, including Lions Gate Films, is planning a fall marketing campaign aimed at Oscar nominations.

Talk of a best-picture nomination began swirling after “Fahrenheit” won the Golden Palm at the Cannes Film Festival in May.

“Probably the biggest challenge is making certain (Oscar) voters don’t pigeonhole it as a documentary,” says Lions Gate president Tom Ortenberg. “The film is so much more than that.”

Its potential impact on the November election could sway best-picture-nomination support. If Bush is defeated, “Fahrenheit” could be credited with influencing the presidential race. If Bush wins, “Fahrenheit” could curry Hollywood favor as part of a post-election backlash.

Either way, Hollywood is viewed as liberal and heavily Democratic, which tilts in “Fahrenheit’s” favor as a best-picture nominee. So does its entertainment value, which goes way beyond most documentaries.

Still, since the film is all but devoid of professional actors, it may be difficult to persuade the largest bloc of academy voters – actors – to consider it for best picture.

Its distributors are considering a go-for-broke strategy to have “Fahrenheit” eliminated from the documentary category. They’re considering airing the film on television this fall, which would get it in front of more viewers before the election – and also would violate academy rules that no documentary film eligible for award consideration be shown within nine months of a theatrical release. There is no such restriction for best-picture nominees.

Strategy aside, it may be hard to bet against the Weinsteins, who have had a knack for garnering scores of Oscar nominations and wins in the past decade. Miramax has had more than 200 Oscar bids and received 54 awards in various categories since 1988.

Producer Mark Johnson, whose “Rain Man “won an Oscar for best picture in 1988, says “Fahrenheit’s” chances as a best-picture nominee may be bolstered by Moore’s newfound Hollywood status.

Moore, an early critic of the Iraq war, burnished his reputation by lambasting Bush during his televised Oscar acceptance speech in 2003 when “Columbine” won best documentary.

“Moore is widely admired in Hollywood by people who do and don’t like his movies,” says Johnson. “He’s the only person doing what he’s doing.”

Of course, the movie year is far from over. Usually, most Oscar contenders surface in late fall and December.

“I haven’t seen enough to put together a slate of five best-picture nominees,” says Johnson, producer of this summer’s adult box office hit “The Notebook.”

“Presumably, the best has yet to come. We’re going to see a lot of big-pedigree movies, good movies coming out from some significant directors by the end of the year.”