Peyton’s not the prized possession he once was
You don’t need a calendar to count the passing of fantasy football weeks. Mark time instead by noting the increasing size of the gray patches on the head of your nearest Peyton Manning owner.
Manning turning from Prince Charming to croaking toad has his owners anxiously awaiting a fair maiden to break the spell and relieve them of this unexpected fantasy nightmare. There are many theories to explore.
Manning is throwing much less. The Colts threw on 55 percent of their plays last year. This year, it’s 47 percent.
Teams are forcing Manning to throw short. In ‘04, Manning averaged 13.6 yards per completion. Thus far, it’s significantly lower, 11.39.
More importantly, his yards per pass attempt (YPA) is down about three and he’s gone from a TD every 10 passes in ‘04 to one every 43. The recommendation? Call your graying, balding Manning owner and relieve him of his troubles.
Trends are starting to develop. Nine teams are throwing more than 60 percent of the time. But only five are throwing efficiently (over 7.5 YPA): Eagles, Raiders, Rams, Browns, Patriots. Obviously, Trent Dilfer is the most gettable of these QBs and is cheap again after being held out of the end zone by Indy. Worry about Rams QB Marc Bulger’s safety. He’s been sacked a league-high 15 times.
These teams are kind to running backs by throwing less than 50 percent: Chargers, Bills, Bengals, Redskins, Colts, Jaguars, Chiefs, Bucs, Falcons and Steelers. The last three all run about 60 percent (nothing new for the Falcons and Steelers). The Ravens have thrown 74 percent of the time this year, with little result (though Jamal Lewis and the running game are also wheezing).
Excluding the Monday Night game, 55 percent of NFL plays from scrimmage are passes. Last year, it was 53 percent.
Buy
Drew Bledsoe (QB, Cowboys): He’s only throwing on 51 percent of plays, but is second in the league in YPA and has weapons. The Cowboys pass defense is terrible thus far, so more shootouts might be forthcoming. Also get explosive-again WR Terry Glenn if you’re in a yardage-heavy or distance-scoring league.
Tom Brady (QB, Patriots): He played great Sunday at Pittsburgh but didn’t register a TD. Brady will be a top-five QB going forward because Corey Dillon looks like he’s lost a step and New England will have to win some shootouts with its secondary in shambles.
Michael Clayton (WR, Bucs): No TDs yet and the Bucs throw 40 percent of the time. But Clayton is No. 1, not Joey Galloway. Clayton will be a solid No. 2 fantasy receiver. But his current owners may be looking for a hot replacement.
J.J. Arrington (RB, Cardinals): Marcel Shipp did nothing last week as Arrington battled the effects of a nasty stomach flu. Arrington shares are so low now it just pays to buy. Grab him with an eye toward the second half.
Sell
Daunte Culpepper, QB, Vikings: The first half against the Saints has created a selling opportunity. The 12 sacks and 10 turnovers (two fumbles) are still a grim reality (that’s 22 drives killed right there). Culpepper will likely be a borderline top-five QB; sell only if you find someone still thinking higher.
Cadillac Williams, RB, Bucs: With 88 carries he’s on pace for 464. Last year at Aurburn, Williams had 239 carries. At this rate, Cadillac will run out of gas after about eight games. Louisiana-Monroe, the Citadel and Kentucky are not on the Bucs ‘05 schedule and Mike Alstott already has a short TD.