In retrospect, perhaps the strongest argument for moving Washington’s 2008 presidential primary election to Feb. 19 was: “Oh, why not?”

It’s not going to hurt anything. It might even do a little good. After all, by late May when the primary might have been held, the parties might be sweeping up the confetti from nomination decisions. Accelerating the date was intended to keep this state’s election from being irrelevant.

State Republican chairman Luke Esser probably overstated the case, though, proclaiming, “All the candidates will pay more attention to our state now.”

In fact, by the time Washington residents cast their mostly ceremonial votes next winter, many of the presidential candidates, having been knocked out of the running, will have stopped paying attention to any states.

On Feb. 5, two weeks before Washington’s primary, at least a dozen states, and probably more, will hold their own primaries. Those include populous states such as California, New York and New Jersey. Those simultaneous primaries, known as Super Tuesday, will determine most of the pledged delegates to the following summer’s national nominating conventions.

Says the American Enterprise Institute: “The February 5th date won’t necessarily crown the nominees, but it is clear that candidates who haven’t made a strong showing by this time will have hit a brick wall.”

Talk about being irrelevant.

The real reason that Washington voters should keep their expectations in check as far as serious candidate attention is concerned is that this state is conducting little more than a straw vote. Democrats have decided not to allocate any of their national convention delegates on the basis of the primary election, and Republicans will choose only half of theirs.

In the most competitive and most costly presidential election in decades, candidates and their primary election campaign organizations will be apportioning time and cash where it can deliver substantive returns, and in a tight race that means delegates more than popular votes.

Michael Toner, chairman of the Federal Election Commission, estimates it will take $100 million by the end of 2007 to be a serious presidential contender in 2008. He has predicted more than $1 billion will be spent by the wide-open field.

That kind of financial pressure won’t tolerate marginal showings, meaning the dropout activity after Feb. 5 could look like an avalanche and Washington’s Feb. 19 election will have little more than bragging-rights appeal to candidates.

In the words of Secretary of State Sam Reed, the state’s top election official, “We’re gambling it’s not going to be all over on the 5th.”

Is the gamble worth it? Oh, why not?