Past looms large in South Carolina
COLUMBIA, S.C. – Hank Williams Jr.’s Southern anthem “If Heaven Ain’t a Lot Like Dixie” came on the radio between political events in South Carolina recently. The irony struck swiftly, for the refrain of the 1980s song set against the political realities of 2007 is a fascinating study in the confusing, conflicting and confounding times we live in.
“If they don’t have the Grand Ole Opry, like they do in Tennessee,” Williams croons, “just send me to hell or New York City, it would be about the same to me.”
It just so happens that the ex-mayor of hell – i.e. New York City – has been leading or basically tied for the lead in recent South Carolina’s presidential polls. Rudolph Giuliani would be the next president of the United States if a good number of South Carolinians – indeed, a good many Southerners – got their way. But as in all things, the dichotomy is not that simple. This state is perpetually torn between past and future, and more than usual, so is this presidential campaign. That’s why accepting conventional wisdom at this point is a fool’s game.
South Carolina is the enigma state. It is still caught in a long struggle over a symbol of its past – the Confederate battle flag, which still flies on the Statehouse grounds. When Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., campaigned here recently, five men claiming to be members of a group called the Palmetto Heritage Association stood outside the event flying the flag.
“There’ll be a lot more people inside than there are out here,” said a man on his way to McCain’s rally inside a flour mill. And he was right. Though the flag issue remains controversial, the flag seems destined to a museum, which is where Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., said it belongs. Obama, whose father was black, has been drawing huge crowds in rallies across the state. He says he wants to cast aside the politics of division and look ahead to more inclusive politics.
Presidential candidates always talk that way; always assert that elections are about the future. But 2008 is shaping up as a precursor election more than most.
Several Democratic candidates – Hillary Rodham Clinton, John Edwards, Chris Dodd and Joe Biden – have had to explain their 2002 vote to authorize the invasion of Iraq. Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, voted against the war and claims those who voted yes exposed critical judgment flaws. That debate is not likely to end until a Democratic nominee is chosen in about 10 months. And Clinton cannot escape the references – good and bad – to her husband Bill’s eight years in the White House. When she asserted recently that if elected, she’d make Bill Clinton ambassador to the world, past became prologue.
Much of Giuliani’s appeal here and elsewhere – he is at or near the lead in national and many state polls – stems from his leadership after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks. If the Republicans nominate Giuliani, it would be the political surprise of a generation, for he does not agree with rank-and-file Republicans on abortion, gun and gay rights. Still, there is evidence that voters are putting more stock on what Giuliani did after 9/11 than on what he might do on any of those issues in 2011. This pivot could be a key component of Election ‘08.
After his rally, McCain was asked about the differences in South Carolina between now and 2000, when he was defeated in a climactic, brutal showdown with George W. Bush. Many still think McCain was a victim of a vicious, racist whisper campaign in 2000. There were widespread reports that anonymous “push pollers” were suggesting that McCain had illegitimately fathered a black child. He has an adopted, dark-skinned daughter from Bangladesh. The campaign against McCain in 2000, his then-campaign manger Rick Davis later asserted, “would make history for its negativity.”
But rather than dwell on that, McCain talked about how much the state had changed since 2000, how much growth had taken place, especially along the coast. Indeed, there are visual signs of change in South Carolina.
McCain seemed ever intent on looking ahead. But in 2008, past will be prologue.