Newcomers bring more than higher housing costs

Native Spokane residents may carp about Californians, but migrants from the Golden State bring with them more of what the Inland Northwest needs to prosper, even if their transplanted home equity contorts the local real estate market.

For that matter, newcomers from anywhere outside Washington are a positive.

That’s less true of those moving in from other Washington counties.

But migration in general has been critical to Spokane’s growth since 1960. When folks stay put, Spokane suffers. When they pick up and move, the county benefits.

The native reproductive rate has fallen by half since 1980. (Don’t take this as a call to action.)

“Migration is the story,” Seattle consultant Michael Luis last week told officials looking for ways to increase the stock of affordable housing in Spokane. And Californians are the main characters.

In 2005, according to the Internal Revenue Service, almost 1,000 moved to the county. California transplants outnumbered even those from Idaho. No other state came close.

Those tax returns also showed incomes — $51,316 — well above those for any other group of migrants, from in-state or out. Californians were the only group, in fact, that earned more than those living in Spokane in 2004. Most of those who arrive in Spokane County, particularly those from rural areas, not only have lower incomes, they are less skilled, with their prospects probably limited to the service industries, Luis said.

According to a 2005 American Community Survey, non-Washingtonians moving to Spokane are more likely to have some college, and much more likely than narives to have a graduate degree.

Most have jobs before they arrive.

“The Northwest is not a friendly place just to show up,” Luis says, because living costs are high.

State statistics show that when people come here, they work. They also indicate that in Spokane County:

“Total wages increased 23 percent from 2000 to 2006.

“Bank deposits soared 85 percent.

“Retailers rang up 30 percent higher sales.

Much of that can be traced to home construction, and related purchases of appliances, furniture, etc. Although single-family building has slowed somewhat, home sales for April were up from March and April 2006. The average price was $216,660, the median $185,500.

The average has almost doubled since 2002, which explains the formation of the Spokane Affordable Home Task Force. Members are trying to find ways to keep housing costs from further outdistancing incomes.

The pressure will probably not ease anytime soon, as one surprise finding by Luis portends.

Conventional wisdom says Spokane is a Mecca for retirees. That’s not so.

The percent of the population more than 65 years old has declined over the last 15 years, a trend Luis attributes to the influx of the young. Married couples with children are also a smaller percent of the population. Single men and women have backfilled that space.

Luis predicts the retirees will come, based on recent surveys that tout Spokane’s attractiveness. AARP ranked Spokane 14th in 2003 on its list of places to reinvent your life, citing the area’s many indoor and outdoor amenities. Another survey indicated that, the younger the boomer, the more likely they were to consider a move at retirement.

The challenge for builders and local officials will be, as Luis says, “right-sizing” future housing stock between low-density suburban and high-density urban, both of which are moving beyond affordability. And seniors, as well as younger arrivals, may have a vision of home more colonial than craftsman, mission than modern.

Luis, who has a wealth of experience with affordable housing on the West Side, hopes the Spokane task force will find out more in the next few months in a series of focus group meetings. What they find, and how they respond, could determine what Spokane looks like in another decade.

Not, please, like Los Angeles.