Picking the Emmys
Emmy voters seem fond of the newcomer who needs a boost, and the old-timer who needs a last hurrah.
This year’s Emmy Awards, airing tonight, has nominees on both ends.
The old-timer is “The Sopranos,” which has wrapped up its final season. It has earned plenty of individual Emmys – three each for James Gandolfini and Edie Falco – but has only won once for best drama series.
And newcomers? “Heroes” is up for best drama, “Ugly Betty” and “30 Rock” for best comedy.
Here are a few preferences and predictions:
Drama series
Should win: “House,” Fox.
Will win: “Sopranos,” HBO.
Other nominees: “Heroes,” NBC; “Grey’s Anatomy” and “Boston Legal,” ABC.
Comedy series
Should win: Well, nobody, really. But we’ll reluctantly go with CBS’ “Two and a Half Men.”
Will win: Probably “Ugly Betty,” possibly “30 Rock.” It’s a perfect time for a newcomer.
Other nominees: “The Office” (last year’s winner), NBC; “Entourage,” HBO.
Variety series
Should and will win: “The Daily Show,” Comedy Central.
Other nominees: David Letterman’s “The Late Show,” Conan O’Brien’s and Bill Maher’s shows, plus “The Colbert Report.”
Actor, drama
Should win: Hugh Laurie, “House,” Fox. But we always say that. (We also think he should have been chosen to host, instead of Ryan Seacrest.)
Will win: Gandolfini.
Other nominees: Keifer Sutherland, “24,” Fox; James Spader, “Boston Legal,” ABC; Denis Leary, “Rescue Me,” FX. (Sutherland won last year; Spader the two years before that.)
Actress, drama
Should win: Minnie Driver, “The Riches,” FX. It’s her first Emmy nomination, and her first regular series role.
Will win: Falco.
Other nominees: Mariska Hargitay, “Law & Order: Special Victims Unit,” NBC; Patricia Arquette, “Medium,” NBC; Sally Field, “Brothers & Sisters,” ABC; Kyra Sedgwick, “The Closer,” TNT. (Hargitay and Arquette won the two previous years.)
Actor, comedy
Should and will win: Steve Carell, “The Office,” NBC.
Other nominees: Tony Shalhoub, “Monk,” USA: Alec Baldwin, “30 Rock,” NBC; “Extras,” Ricky Gervais, HBO; Charlie Sheen, “Two and a Half Men,” CBS.
Actress, comedy
Should and will win: America Ferrera, “Ugly Betty.”
Other nominees: Felicity Huffman, “Desperate Housewives,” ABC; Tina Fey, “30 Rock,” NBC; Julia Louis-Dreyfus, “The New Adventures of Old Christine”; Mary-Louise Parker, “Weeds,” Showtime. (Louis-Dreyfus and Huffman won in the two previous years.)
More, briefly
Movie: Should and will win: “Bury My Heart at Wounded Knee,” HBO. It was inconsistent, but with strong moments.
Miniseries: Should and will win: “Prime Suspect: The Final Act,” PBS. Helen Mirren should win, too, extending her streak to three with an Emmy, an Oscar and now another Emmy.
Reality competition: “American Idol” should win and maybe will this time, after all those “Amazing Race” wins.
Variety special: Should and will win: NBC’s “Tony Bennett: An American Classic,” one of television’s greatest hours.
Comedy support: Should and will: Jaime Pressly, “My Name is Earl,” NBC; and Jeremy Piven, “Entourage,” HBO.
Drama support: Should win, Michael Emerson of “Lost.” Will win, Masi Oka, “Heroes”; rarely have a character and an actor seemed so fresh and fun. Also, Katherine Heigl of “Grey’s Anatomy” should win, but cast mate Sandra Oh will.