Many pieces fit in weather puzzle

Forecast the weather in the short term can be challenging enough. But these days, scientist are looking weeks, months and even years ahead and trying to gauge the direction of weather and climate trends across the globe. How are they even able to do this? First they have to figure out the driving forces of weather patterns and climate change, and in recent years more pieces of the puzzle are coming to light. One of those major pieces is the cycle of “El Niño/La Niña.” Relatively strong correlation between sea surface temperatures and weather patterns can be found during certain seasons and for certain parts of the U.S. Mild winters during a strong El Niño episode are usually a pretty sure bet for the Pacific Northwest, for example.

Another major piece, and one that has made headlines in many scientific circles recently, is the role of solar activity on global temperatures. We already know that the sun is the source of energy that runs our atmospheric engine. Differential heating from the poles to the equator are what cause the currents of air (the wind) and water to move, redistributing the heat energy received on the planet. The energy we receive from the sun is not constant, however. The sun goes through at least one cycle in which solar activity peaks on average every 11 years. When I speak of solar activity, I’m talking about sunspots, which are electromagnetic storms on the sun. The increase or decrease in sunspots seems to have a correlation on global temperatures. The Maunder Minimum, refers to a period of time from roughly 1640 to 1710 A.D., when sunspots were nearly nonexistent. The same time frame coincides with the heart of what is referred to as the Little Ice Age, a period when much of the world was subjected to bitterly cold – much colder than normal – winter seasons.

Since 1940, observations have shown a sharp increase in the number of sunspots – with more activity than has been seen in the last 1,000 years, and 2 1/2 times the long-term average. Though still up for much debate, some scientists think that the increased solar activity could be partly to blame for rising global temperatures over the last several decades. The key word of course is “partly.”

It is difficult to isolate any one single element as the changing force in large scale weather patterns and climate. Add to the mix explosive volcanic eruptions, which can spew large amounts of particulates into the air, blocking sunlight and causing widespread cooling across a vast area. This has occurred many times in history, with the most severe short-term cooling effects felt in the northern hemisphere after the eruption of Huaynaputina, Peru, in 1600 A.D.

And you cannot totally discount the impacts of man on the planet. When, for example, large swaths of rainforest are cut down, or acres of grass transformed into asphalt, there will be effects on the local climate, which in turn ripple into the larger climate picture.

The role of sunspots, though, is in the limelight now, and if we go with the notion that solar activity does have a major impact on global temperatures and climate in general, it will interest you to know that Russian scientists Khabibullo Absudamatov and Dr. Oleg Sorokhtin predict decreasing solar activity, with a minimum in the year 2040. The result could be much chillier weather all the way into the 22nd century. Maybe I should extend my 10-day forecast out a couple of decades.

Don’t forget to spring forward tonight and set your clocks ahead one hour before going to bed.