Obama nearing delegate milestone

BILLINGS – The Democratic presidential nomination contest – relegated to almost a sideshow in recent days as fireworks intensified between Democrat Barack Obama and Republican John McCain – is all but certain to pass an important milestone Tuesday as voters head to the polls in Kentucky and Oregon.

By day’s end, Obama expects to have locked up a majority of the pledged delegates to the party’s national convention. While not assuring Obama of the nomination in August, the achievement would signal victory is near in his battle with Hillary Rodham Clinton.

To mark the moment, Obama will appear at a rally not in one of the primary states, but in Iowa – the state whose January caucus brought Obama a win that galvanized his campaign.

On Monday, Obama continued to target McCain rather than Clinton. At a stop here, the Illinois senator noted the recent resignation of five McCain campaign staffers because of lobbying activities. Obama asserted that the presumptive Republican nominee’s campaign is “being run by Washington lobbyists and paid for with their money.”

Tucker Bounds, a spokesman for the Arizona senator, countered that McCain “has the strictest policy barring federal lobbyists from the campaign in history” and challenged Obama to “shed light on the long list of federal lobbyists advising him on policy issues.”

The Clinton campaign, for its part, signaled that Obama’s fight for the Democratic nomination isn’t over. Clinton will head today to Florida, a state whose delegates she is trying to have reinstated. Obama already had planned to appear there on the same day.

Political strategists not affiliated with either Democratic campaign said Obama is being careful not to actually claim victory tonight.

“This is a pretty delicate situation for the Obama campaign. They’re obviously going to do everything they can here to make sure Senator Clinton has a soft landing at the end of this campaign,” said Bill Carrick, a Los Angeles-based Democratic strategist.

Still, he said, “clearly calling attention to having a majority of the pledged delegates suggests that, mathematically, the campaign is coming to an end.”

The Democratic rivals are expected to split today’s primaries, with Clinton heavily favored in Kentucky and Obama thought to be well ahead in Oregon.

Yet even with a weak showing, Obama should be able to amass a majority of pledged delegates, those awarded based on popular vote totals.

That doesn’t mean Obama will have clinched the nomination. He needs to win more delegates to cross that threshold.

So far, Obama has won 1,610.5 pledged delegates, versus 1,443.5 for Clinton, according to the Associated Press.

Because the total number of pledged delegates is 3,253, party officials say, a candidate needs 1,627.5 to secure a majority. Obama is 17 short of that mark. He should easily pick up that number in Oregon and Kentucky, where a total of 103 delegates are at stake.

Even so, Obama will be short of the number he needs to lock down the nomination: 2,026, according to the Democratic National Committee. (That number assumes the results in Florida and Michigan are not counted. The states were stripped of their delegates for defying party rules by moving ahead in the primary calendar. Reinstating those delegates is crucial to Clinton’s strategy.)

Another part of the equation is the superdelegates – the elected officials and party insiders who are free to vote for any candidate. As of Monday, Obama had 304.5 superdelegates, with 277.5 for Clinton, according to the AP.

Obama scooped up five more superdelegates Monday to zero for Clinton. The most prominent was Sen. Robert C. Byrd, of West Virginia, where Clinton scored a lopsided victory a week ago. In a statement, Byrd called Clinton and Obama “extraordinary individuals,” but added that Obama “is a shining young statesman who possesses the personal temperament and courage necessary to extricate our country from this costly misadventure in Iraq.” Democratic pollster John Anzalone said Byrd probably also was delivering an assessment that the Democratic race is effectively over. “Robert Byrd can do math just like anyone else can,” he said.