Jobless numbers difficult to judge

WASHINGTON – Applications for unemployment aid have been fluctuating from week to week, offering an uncertain view of layoffs and the job market.

First-time requests for jobless aid dropped last week to their lowest level since early May, the government said Thursday, erasing increases made in the last two months.

Still, economists say it’s hard to detect a trend in one week of declines. Initial claims have seesawed for several weeks and are not much lower than they were in January.

Elevated unemployment claims, along with last month’s weak jobs report and a struggling housing market, have suggested that the recovery is slowing.

“While the report is good news, it would need to be followed up by several more weeks to suggest a pickup in hiring,” Julia Coronado, an economist at BNP Paribas, said in a note to clients.

Meanwhile, the total number of unemployed Americans receiving benefits is dropping sharply because their aid is ending. About 350,000 people stopped receiving benefits in the week of June 19. Most of them were cut off because Congress has yet to extend federal jobless aid.

The Labor Department estimates that about 1.7 million have lost benefits as of last week, after extended unemployment insurance expired in late May. Those numbers could reach 3.3 million by the end of the month if Congress doesn’t pass an extension after it returns from recess next week.

During the recession, Congress added up to 73 weeks of extra benefits on top of the 26 weeks typically provided by states. But Senate Republicans have blocked efforts to continue those extra benefits, citing concerns about the size of the federal budget deficit.

Initial jobless claims fell by 21,000 to a seasonally adjusted 454,000, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average of claims dropped slightly to 466,000 last week. In a healthy economic recovery with rapid hiring, claims usually fall below 400,000. Claims are down from last year’s peak of 651,000 in March 2009 but are barely below early January’s level of 456,000.

A bigger concern is the number of people who may lose benefits this month.

Other economists noted that the end of extended benefits could cut Americans’ incomes by as much as $41 billion, potentially reducing consumer spending in the coming months.