Dan Caesar’s Week 14 NFL picks
Ravens at Dolphins
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Line: Dolphins by 3
Records: Baltimore 7-5, 3-3 away; Miami 7-5, 3-2 home.
Synopsis: Playoff contenders battle but BAL is now minus key defensive tackle Haloti Ngata, who has been suspended for the rest of the regular season. With his absence MIA will try to get its 10th-rated ground attack rolling. MIA’s ‘D’ is No. 6 and the Dolphins have allowed just nine points, total, in their last two home contests.
Pick: Dolphins 20-16
Steelers at Bengals
Kickoff: 10 a.m. (CBS)
Line: Bengals by 3
Records: Pittsburgh 7-5, 3-3 away; Cincinnati 8-3-1, 4-1-1 home.
Synopsis: Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger has been up and down and now faces a ‘D’ that has permitted just 11 TD passes, fewest in the NFL. And PIT averages just 18.3 points on the road. Cincinnati’s offensive line is banged up, but faces a ‘D’ that allowed New Orleans to run for 143 yards last week.
Pick: Bengals 27-23
Colts at Browns
Kickoff: 10 a.m. (Fox 28)
Line: Colts by 31/2
Records: Indianapolis 8-4, 3-2 away; Cleveland 7-5, 4-2 home.
Synopsis: CLEV sticks with struggling QB Brian Hoyer – but can he keep pace with INDY’s Andrew Luck-led offense, which is No. 1 in the NFL in passing, yards and points? The Colts might want to try the ground game, because CLEV is No. 29 vs. the run. Browns RB Isaiah Crowell (seven TDs) nurses a hip injury.
Pick: Colts 27-23
Texans at Jaguars
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Line: Texans by 6
Records: Houston 6-6, 3-3 away; Jacksonville 2-10, 2-4 home.
Synopsis: Texans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick, who threw six TD passes last week, faces the NFL’s No. 24 pass ‘D.’ JAX actually won last week (albeit vs. the lowly Giants) but averaged just 15.5 points, and Blake Bortles has been sacked 34 times – fourth-most in the league – despite not playing until Week 3.
Pick: Texans 23-20
Giants at Titans
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Line: Even
Records: New York 3-9, 1-5 away; Tennessee 2-10, 1-4 home.
Synopsis: These clubs have combined for 13 consecutive losses. NY’s ‘D’ is putrid, permitting 385 yards a game (No. 29), but TEN’s offense seems incapable of fully cashing in as the Titans score just 17.8 points a game and banged-up QB Zach Mettenberger is set to start.
Pick: Giants 27-23
Panthers at Saints
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Line: Saints by 10
Records: Carolina 3-8-1, 1-4-1 away; New Orleans 5-7, 3-3 home.
Synopsis: New Orleans finally got on track last week by winning in Pittsburgh. Now it goes to lowly Carolina, which has lost six in a row and allows 27.6 points a game, 29th in the NFL. With little margin for error, look for a focused performance from the Saints.
Pick: Saints 30-24
Bucs at Lions
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Line: Lions by 10
Records: Tampa Bay 2-10, 2-4 away; Detroit 8-4, 5-1 home.
Synopsis: Detroit’s sputtering offense finally erupted last week in a 34-17 victory over the Bears, but faces a team that has allowed an average of just 14 points in its last three outings. But DET gets RB Reggie Bush (ankle) back and has no excuse for not rolling against a club that has nothing to play for here.
Pick: Lions 30-17
Rams at Redskins
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Line: Rams by 3
Records: St. Louis 5-7, 2-4 away; Washington 3-9, 2-3 home.
Synopsis: STL’s on the upswing, comes off a 52-0 bombardment of OAK and goes on the road to face a discombobulated foe that has a beat-up secondary and starts a QB, Colt McCoy, who not long ago was third string. Still, Rams haven’t won two in a row all year and are a road favorite for the first time since 2010.
Pick: Rams 23-21
Jets at Vikings
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Line: Vikings by 6
Records: New York 2-10, 0-5 away; Minnesota 5-7, 3-3 home.
Synopsis: NY ran 49 times last week, for 277 yards, but lost to MIA. With the Vikes No. 6 vs. the pass but 24th against the run and a wintery weather mix in the forecast, look for many more handoffs. Vikes have won three of five but it’s hard to trust either of these clubs.
Pick: Vikings 23-17
Bills at Broncos
Kickoff: 1:05 p.m.
Line: Broncos by 10
Records: Buffalo 7-5, 3-2 away; Denver 9-3, 6-0 home.
Synopsis: DEN has been running the ball lately (C.J. Anderson has 335 yards total in the last two games) and that could be key because the aerial-oriented Broncos face the No. 5 pass ‘D’ here. BUF has won two in a row and has three road wins, but it’s in a tough spot.
Pick: Broncos 31-20
Chiefs at Cardinals
Kickoff: 1:05 p.m.
Line: Chiefs by 1
Records: Kansas City 7-5, 3-3 away; Arizona 9-3, 6-0 home.
Synopsis: Arizona has lost two in a row and is minus safety Tyrann Mathieu (thumb). But the Cards hope to have WR Larry Fitzgerald (sprained knee) back to face the NFL’s top pass ‘D.’ KC has No. 30 run ‘D,’ but Cards RB Andre Ellington (hip) is out.
Pick: Chiefs 23-20
49ers at Raiders
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Line: 49ers by 8
Records: San Francisco 7-5, 4-2 away; Oakland 1-11, 1-5 home.
Synopsis: SF comes off a lackluster loss to SEA, but has the perfect tonic to bounce back as it faces the NFL’s worst team. The 49ers’ offense, averaging just 19.3 points, should get untracked here against a defense that is 27th vs. the run. OAK has nothing to gain.
Pick: 49ers 27-13
Patriots at Chargers
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. (NBC)
Line: Patriots by 4
Records: New England 9-3, 3-3 away; San Diego 8-4, 5-1 home.
Synopsis: New England comes off a loss in Green Bay and has been on the West Coast all week as QB Tom Brady prepares to face the No. 8 ‘D.’ Meanwhile, SD has won three in a row and has been bolstered by the recent return of RB Ryan Mathews.
Pick: Patriots 27-23
Falcons at Packers
Monday: 5:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Line: Packers by 121/2
Records: Atlanta 5-7, 2-4 away; Green Bay 9-3, 6-0 home.
Synopsis: GB got a big win over NE last week, and isn’t in a “sandwich” situation here because it next is at Buffalo. Atlanta is improved and has the No. 6 aerial attack to face a defense that is banged up. But GB averages 40.8 points at home; no snow is forecast.
Pick: Packers 37-17