Dan Caesar’s NFL preview, Week 16

Vikings at Dolphins

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Line: MIA by 6 OU: 421/2

Records: Minnesota 6-8, 2-5 away; Miami 7-7, 3-3 home

Synopsis: Sliding Miami has been outscored by a combined 69-26 in its last two outings to seriously dim its playoff hopes. Complicating matters is that the offense is sputtering and faces the NFL’s No. 11 defense. Minnesota is just 28th in offense and is playing out the string, but has a lot of young players who are eager to shine.

Pick: Vikings 23-20

Packers at Bucs

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Line: GB by 12 OU: 481/2

Records: Green Bay 10-4, 3-4 away; Tampa Bay 2-12, 0-6 home

Synopsis: Green Bay seeks to rebound after a rough outing by QB Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the offense last week, but that came vs. Buffalo’s potent ‘D.’ The unit works against the league’s 25th-rated defense. Tampa scores just 18.1 points per game, No. 27 in the NFL.

Pick: Packers 33-17

Lions at Bears

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Line: DET by 81/2 OU: 441/2

Records: Detroit 10-4, 3-3 away; Chicago 5-9, 2-5 home

Synopsis: Things are so bad in Chicago that QB Jay Cutler has been benched in favor of seldom-used Jimmy Clausen, who will face Detroit’s fierce defense that ranks second in the NFL and has allowed an average of just 16 points in its last three outings. Lions QB Matthew Stafford has been inconsistent, but faces the NFL’s second-worst pass ‘D’ here.

Pick: Lions 27-13

Falcons at Saints

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Line: NO by 61/2 OU: 551/2

Records: Atlanta 5-9, 2-5 away; New Orleans 6-8, 3-4 home

Synopsis: Key game in woeful NFC South playoff race. The Saints finally got untracked Monday, but that was vs. the Bears. They’re now at home, where they’ve lost four in a row – but have won seven of their last eight there vs. the Falcons. Atlanta’s Matt Ryan threw for 448 yards vs. New Orleans in Week 1 but might not have wideout Julio Jones back from a hip injury.

Pick: Saints 33-30

Patriots at Jets

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Line: NE by 101/2 OU: 461/2

Records: New England 11-3, 4-3 away; New York 3-11, 2-5 home

Synopsis: New England already has clinched the AFC East title, now shoots for the top AFC playoff seed. Jets usually play the Pats tight, with four of the last five meetings being decided by a field goal or less. But New England has won six of seven, averaging 36.4 points.

Pick: Patriots 27-17

Chiefs at Steelers

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Line: PIT by 3 OU: 471/2

Records: Kansas City 8-6, 3-4 away; Pittsburgh 9-5, 4-2 home

Synopsis: Pittsburgh has the NFL’s top offense (424.9 yards a game), Kansas City the No. 8 ‘D’ (331.8 yards a game allowed). However, the Chiefs are 28th vs. the run, so expect Pittsburgh to have RB Le’Veon Bell running early and often. The Steelers have averaged 39 points in their last four home games. Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles is banged up but plans to play.

Pick: Steelers 30-20

Browns at Panthers

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Line: CAR by 31/2 OU: 401/2

Records: Cleveland 7-7, 3-3 away; Carolina 5-8-1, 3-4 home

Synopsis: It looks as if Cam Newton will be back at QB for Carolina after not playing last week because of injuries suffered in a traffic accident. He’d be wise to hand off to Jonathan Stewart, as Cleveland gave up 244 rushing yards last week. Browns QB Johnny Manziel makes his second start and faces the No. 12 pass ‘D.’

Pick: Panthers 24-10

Ravens at Texans

Kickoff: 10 a.m.

Line: BAL by 5 OU: 411/2

Records: Baltimore 9-5, 4-3 away; Houston 7-7, 3-3 home

Synopsis: Baltimore makes the playoffs if it wins here and next week, vs. the Browns, and sends the NFL’s No. 10 offense against the No. 24 ‘D.’ And although the Ravens are No. 30 vs. the pass they’ll face a QB (Case Keenum) who wasn’t even with the team until Monday and was 0-8 as their starter last year. So Houston should go to its ground game, right? Well, Baltimore is No. 3 vs. the run.

Pick: Ravens 24-20

Giants at Rams

Kickoff: 1:05 p.m.

Line: STL by 61/2 OU: 431/2

Records: New York 5-9, 2-5 away; St. Louis 6-8, 3-4 home

Synopsis: St. Louis tries to become the first team to go four games in a row without allowing a TD since 2000, when the Pittsburgh had a five-game run. New York counters with standout rookie WR Odell Beckham Jr. But will QB Eli Manning have time to get the ball to Beckham? The Rams have 35 sacks in their last nine contests.

Pick: Rams 20-17

Bills at Raiders

Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.

Line: BUF by 7 OU: 391/2

Records: Buffalo 8-6, 3-3 away; Oakland 2-12, 2-5 home

Synopsis: Buffalo comes off big win at home over Green Bay, but has slim playoff chances and unleashes its fifth-rated defense on the NFL’s last-place offense. Buffalo’s offense has been struggling, but should get a boost from the expected return of running back C.J. Spiller from a broken collarbone.

Pick: Bills 20-16

Colts at Cowboys

Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.

Line: DAL by 31/2 OU: 551/2

Records: Indianapolis 10-4, 4-2 away; Dallas 10-4, 3-4 home

Synopsis: Dallas’ DeMarco Murray, the NFL’s leading rusher, is expected to play despite having recent surgery for a broken bone in his left hand – but how effective would he be vs. the No. 15 run ‘D’? Another problem for Dallas – its offensive line is banged up. But what is Indy’s interest? It has clinched the AFC South title and may rest top WR T.Y. Hilton (hamstring).

Pick: Cowboys 26-20

Broncos at Bengals

Monday: 5:30 p.m.

Line: DEN by 31/2 OU: 48

Records: Denver 11-3, 4-3 away; Cincinnati 9-4-1, 4-2-1 home

Synopsis: Cincinnati has bombed twice in prime time this year but comes off a big win vs. Cleveland and catches a break because Broncos QB Peyton Manning (8-0 in his career vs. the Bengals) nurses a thigh injury and the Denver offense hasn’t surpassed 24 points in its last two outings. Cincinnati needs this more than Denver, which has clinched the AFC West title.

Pick: Bengals 27-24