Dan Caesar’s Week 6 NFL picks
Broncos at Jets
Kickoff: 10 a.m. (CBS)
Records: Denver: 3-1, 0-1 road. New York: 1-4, 1-2 home.
Line: DEN by 9 1/2 O/U: 47 1/2
Synopsis: Denver unleashes its high-powered attack against the 15th-ranked pass defense, and Peyton Manning should carve up this foe that has just one sack all year. It will be hard for NY to keep up as it ranks 30th in scoring, just 15.8 points a game.
Pick: Broncos 31-20
Steelers at Browns
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Pittsburgh: 3-2, 2-1 road. Cleveland: 2-2, 1-1 home.
Line: CLE by 1 1/2 O/U: 47
Synopsis: Both have been up-and-down, and this looks like a good spot for Cleveland and it unleashes the No. 4 ground attack against an erratic run defense. Pittsburgh is now an offensive team (ranking fourth in yards) but its defense is not bad either, rating No. 9. We’ll go with home club.
Pick: Browns 24-20
Jaguars at Titans
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Jacksonville: 0-5, 0-3 road. Tennessee: 1-4, 0-2 home.
Line: TEN by 4 O/U: 42 1/2
Synopsis: The Titans QB situation is iffy, but it looks as if backup Charlie Whitehurst is in line to start with Jake Locker ailing. Tennessee is coming off an epic collapse, blowing 25-point lead and losing to Cleveland last week and the improving Jaguars are capable of winning this one.
Pick: Titans 23-20
Packers at Dolphins
Kickoff: 10 a.m. (Fox 28)
Records: Green Bay: 3-2, 1-2 road. Miami: 2-2, 1-1 home.
Line: GB by 3 O/U: 49 1/2
Synopsis: Miami expects to have RB Knowshon Moreno back from an elbow injury he suffered in Week 2, a key element here against the NFL’s worst run defense (163 yards per game). The Packers are uncharacteristically 28th in offense and the Dolphins are formidable on defense (No. 7). Upset lurking here?
Pick: Dolphins 23-20
Lions at Vikings
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Detroit: 3-2, 1-1 road. Minnesota: 2-3, 1-1 home.
Line: MIN by 1 1/2 O/U: 43 1/2
Synopsis: Detroit standout WR Calvin Johnson (ankle) is unlikely to play, and even if he does he’ll be less than 100 percent. On the other side, Vikings QB Teddy Bridgewater is back after missing a game.
Pick: Vikings 27-23
Panthers at Bengals
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Carolina: 3-2, 1-1 road. Cincinnati: 3-1, 2-0 home.
Line: CIN by 6 1/2 O/U: 43 1/2
Synopsis: WR A.J. Green is out (toe) for Cincinnati but the Bengals will be angry after a lackluster outing last week in New England and should move the ball on the ground vs. the No. 24 run defense. Carolina’s running backs are beat up so it looks like it will be a committee of backups.
Pick: Bengals 27-17
Patriots at Bills
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: New England: 3-2, 1-2 road. Buffalo: 3-2, 1-1 home.
Line: NE by 21/2 O/U: 45
Synopsis: New England has been hot and cold, and now QB Tom Brady is nursing an ankle injury. The Pats have been trying to establish the ground game, but Buffalo’s run defense is No. 2. The Bills have Kyle Orton at QB, who won last week in his season debut.
Pick: Bills 23-20
Ravens at Bucs
Kickoff: 10 a.m.
Records: Baltimore: 3-2, 1-1 road. Tampa Bay: 1-4, 0-2 home.
Line: BAL by 3 1/2 O/U: 43
Synopsis: Tampa Bay will try to get the NFL’s No. 30 offense going and would be wise to have Mike Glennon throw a lot, as Baltimore is No. 26 vs. the pass. But the Ravens should be able to score against a team allowing 31.2 points per game.
Pick: Buccaneers 27-24
Chargers at Raiders
Kickoff: 1:05 p.m.
Records: San Diego: 4-1, 1-1 road. Oakland: 0-4, 0-2 home.
Line: SD by 7 O/U: 43 1/2
Synopsis: San Diego seeks its fifth win in a row and is at winless Oakland, which has NFL’s worst offense (270 yards per game) and second-worst run defense (158.2 yards per game). But San Diego is somewhat banged up and could be looking ahead to Kansas City next week.
Pick: Chargers 21-17
Bears at Falcons
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Records: Chicago: 2-3, 2-1 road. Atlanta: 2-3, 2-0 home.
Line: ATL by 3 O/U: 54 1/2
Synopsis: Atlanta is banged up but gritty, and faces an inconsistent Chicago team that is getting too many turnovers from QB Jay Cutler. And he faces the NFL’s No. 2 pass defense. The Falcons will try to get RB Steven Jackson (no more than 54 yards rushing in a game) going against the No. 16 run defense.
Pick: Falcons 33-27
Redskins at Cards
Kickoff: 1:25 p.m.
Records: Washington: 1-4, 0-2 road. Arizona: 3-1, 2-0 home.
Line: ARI by 3 O/U: 45 1/2
Synopsis: With Carson Palmer trying to comeback from a shoulder injury and Drew Stanton having suffered a concussion, Arizona could be down to rookie QB Logan Thomas making his first NFL start, a terrible sign. Whoever goes faces the No. 10 pass defense.
Contingent pick: If Palmer or Stanton start: Cardinals 24-17. If Thomas starts: Redskins 17-14
Giants at Eagles
Kickoff: 5:30 p.m. (NBC)
Records: New York: 3-2, 1-1 road. Philadelphia: 4-1, 3-0 home.
Line: PHI by 3 O/U: 50 1/2
Synopsis: Philadelphia’s once high-flying offense has sputtered, and now will try to turn around vs. the No. 18 defense. The Eagles’ defense has also been poor – 28th – a bad sign vs. NY’s improving Eli Manning-led attack. However, the Giants are minus Rashad Jennings (knee), the NFL’s No. 4 rusher.
Pick: Eagles 27-20
49ers at Rams
Monday: 5:30 p.m. (ESPN)
Records: San Francisco: 3-2, 1-1 road. St. Louis: 1-3, 0-2 home.
Line: SF by 3 1/2 O/U: 43 1/2
Synopsis: Generally don’t like to pick against the home team on Monday night, but San Francisco has a strong ground attack and St. Louis has been terrible against the run (152.5 yards per game, No. 29). And SF’s stout pass defense (No. 4) should give Rams QB Austin Davis, making just his fourth NFL start, plenty of trouble.
Pick: 49ers 23-17