“Should Scotland be an independent country?”

This is the question Scottish voters face in a Sept. 18 referendum. There is currently a small “no” majority in the polls, but the gap has been narrowing and the momentum is with the “yes” side. If there is a yes victory, the 1707 Act of Union uniting England and Scotland will be a dead letter, as will the United Kingdom – Scotland, Wales, England and Northern Ireland – as it has existed.

Scotland has been increasingly dissatisfied with its place in the UK for decades. The discovery of oil off the coast of Scotland in the late 1960s, and the question of how it should be managed and the resulting revenue invested, led to an upsurge in Scottish nationalism in the early 1970s. Demands for self-government increased after Maggie Thatcher became British prime minister.

The 1984-85 miners’ strike, deindustrialization and the poll tax were hugely unpopular in Scotland, but an England with 10 times Scotland’s population keeps electing a Conservative government while Scotland consistently votes Labour. This led finally in 1989 to a large number of Scottish political parties, churches, trade unions and other organizations combining to issue a Scottish “Claim of Right” that asserted “the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs.” It was not an actual declaration of independence, but it had that smell of one.

When the Labour Party under Tony Blair gained power in 1997, a Scottish Parliament was created. This parliament gave Scotland a degree of control over Scottish affairs. It allowed Scotland to adopt policies different from England in many areas, such as continuing to provide free university education, but the parliament’s powers fell well short of those of an independent country.

If Blair had hoped that creation of the parliament would satisfy Scotland, he was to be disappointed. In fact, with the invasion of Iraq, and by continuing the economic policies of the previous Conservative government, Blair greatly increased Scottish discontent. Eventually, the Scots voted in a Scottish National Party government committed to holding a referendum on independence.

The referendum campaign has been very different on the yes and no sides. The yes campaign has been largely grass-roots organized and crowd-funded, while the no campaign has had the backing of the main British political parties and the mainstream media. Despite this, the no side is faltering because it consists of an incoherent mixture of “love bombing” Scotland one minute and threatening it the next; for example, saying that an independent Scotland would no longer be allowed to use the pound as its currency. It is as if Scotland is being wooed by a suitor with multiple personality disorder.

While the yes campaign has been noted for its positivity and optimism, the no campaign has been dubbed “Project Fear” as its approach seems to be that if Scotland won’t stay in the union for love of it, maybe Scots can be scared into staying in by lurid tales of the dangers and difficulties an independent Scotland would supposedly face. But what would a no victory on those terms mean? It would leave a resentful union akin to a failed marriage in which one spouse wants to leave but can’t. It is not a happy prospect, and would just mean kicking the can down the road.

What would be the effects of Scottish independence on Wales and Northern Ireland? Northern Ireland is already only one-half in the union, with one of its largest political parties, Sinn Fein, contesting and winning seats in the UK parliament, but refusing to take them as it does not recognize UK sovereignty over Northern Ireland. The UK’s permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council also likely would be called into question. Why should it have a seat when India or Brazil does not? Scottish independence and the breakup of the UK, if it happens, could mark a pivotal moment in the shift in the balance of world power toward the south and east. Even if the vote is a narrow win for the no side, it is very doubtful that the question of independence will end there, but just be delayed.

Sept. 18 is a date to watch.