What to watch for when the Seahawks take on the Houston Texans in Week 14

SEATTLE – The one thing you can say about Seahawks-Texans games is that they are rare.

Seattle has played Houston just four times since the Texans joined the NFL in 2002 to replace the sadly departed Oilers, the fewest games the Seahawks have played against any of the other 30 teams.

Not that some of the games haven’t been memorable. The Seahawks pulled off what is tied for their fifth-largest comeback in team history – and second largest of the Russell Wilson era – in 2013, rallying from a 20-3 deficit to win 23-20 in overtime (helped by Richard Sherman’s famous ‘one-shoe’ pick six).

In 2017, the last time the two teams met, Wilson and Seattle prevailed in a 41-38 shootout over Houston and Deshaun Watson, in what remains Wilson’s career high of 452 passing yards.

There may not be similar fireworks Sunday as the two teams meet again, featuring combined records of 6-18. Certainly, the Seahawks hope this one has far less drama than those two against a 2-10 Houston team in full rebuild mode.

On to our keys to the game.

Matchup to watch

Seattle running game vs. Houston run defense

No team in the NFL is allowing more rushing yards per game than Houston at 144.2. Houston is almost as bad in terms of rushing yards per attempt, standing 27th at 4.6. One of the few teams allowing more rushing yards per carry is Pittsburgh, against whom the Seahawks had one of their best rushing days of the season with 144 yards on 27 carries. Seattle had 146 last week against the 49ers on 27 carries, but that included Travis Homer’s 73-yard rush on a fake punt. Take that out, and Seattle had 73 on 26 carries. But with Alex Collins healthy after a week off, Rashaad Penny finally getting going and Adrian Peterson having a game under his belt, this could be a day for Seattle to try to get 30-plus rushes for the first time this season.

Player to watch

Safety Ryan Neal

With Jamal Adams out for the season, Ryan Neal steps into the strong safety spot opposite Quandre Diggs at free. Expect Houston to try to target Neal, who will be making his sixth career start. Neal was targeted six times by the 49ers last week and allowed five receptions for 105 yards and a touchdown (the 48-yarder to George Kittle before the half), and a perfect passer rating of 158.3. The good news is that Houston doesn’t have the same weapons as the 49ers, meaning this could be a soft landing for Neal before the challenge of the Rams next week.

Coaching decision to watch

Overall aggressiveness

With Seattle having lost six of its previous seven games, Carroll said he threw some caution to the wind against the 49ers to try to snap his team out of its funk, typified by the fake punt call, letting Jason Myers try a 56-yard field goal, calling a triple pass, and going for it on a fourth down late in the game when a short field goal might have been the safer play. Not all the decisions paid off – not kicking the late field goal almost turned disastrous. Conversely, the fake punt was a masterstroke that may have sent a message to his players, as well. Seattle should be able to beat Houston without a lot of smoke and mirrors. But keeping the foot on the pedal might not hurt at this point.

The X-factor

Complacency

This feels like a game in which the only team who can beat the Seahawks is themselves. True, Houston did win at Tennessee three weeks ago. But that was in a quagmire in which the Titans lost five turnovers while forcing zero. Houston’s only other win came in the season opener against Jacksonville in a game in which the Texans had a 3-0 edge in turnovers. Teams that hang onto the ball and don’t do stupid stuff have pretty much blown out the Texans. Seattle got a feel-good win against the 49ers but needs to avoid the temptation to feel too good and make sure to take care of business Sunday.

Player who could surprise

RT Jake Curhan

If Brandon Shell can’t recover well enough from a shoulder injury that caused him to come out late against the 49ers, then the Seahawks may give Curhan, an undrafted rookie free agent from Cal, his first career start at right tackle. Curhan has played 101 snaps this year, including 41 at right tackle, the bulk coming late in the loss at Minnesota. He played a career-high 60 against the 49ers Sunday at left guard, filling in for the injured Damien Lewis and Kyle Fuller. But Lewis should be back, allowing Curhan to go to his primary position, right tackle. if needed. Curhan gave up two sacks against the 49ers, but as noted, figures to be more comfortable at his usual position. Still, he’ll get some good challenges from Texans’ edge rushers Jonathan Greenard (eight sacks) and former Seahawk Jacob Martin (four).

Key stat

Yards per play

Get ready to hear that this is a matchup of the two worst offenses in the NFL – Seattle ranks 31st in total yards at 298.3 per game while Houston is last at 254.4. More relevant are the yards-per-play averages, which better reflects Seattle’s offensive advantage in this one.

While Houston is last in the NFL at just 4.4 yards per play, Seattle is averaging a full yard better, 5.4, to rank 19th. No team has had a lower yards per play average than Houston since Arizona at 4.3 in 2018, a year Arizona’s QBs were Josh Rosen and Sam Bradford.

Prediction

Seahawks 27, Texans 10

The Seahawks simply can’t and shouldn’t lose a game against a Texans team that basically threw in the white flag on the season when it made the decision to sit Watson (who has been accused of sexual assault and misconduct) for the season. Anything can happen in the NFL.

But if Seattle gives the same effort it did last week against the 49ers, this should be a relatively easy day at the office.