Commentary: Opening series shows Mariners still have slim margin for success

The 2021 Braves lost their first four games of the season and ended up winning the World Series. The 2019 Nationals went 1-3 through their first four and captured a world title as well.

Rational minds aren’t looking at the Mariners’ three consecutive losses as a surefire sign that they’ll regress after last year’s drought-breaking season. But the way they fell in these past two serves as a reminder as to how small their margin of error is.

The M’s (1-3) aren’t the Astros or the Yankees in that they possess the might to regularly bulldoze their foes. They are a talented but tenuous team that relies on the close games tipping in their favor.

In their 90-win season last year, they won an MLB-high 32 one-run games and finished 36-24 in contests that were either decided by one run or went into extra innings. In their 90-win season in 2021, they also led MLB with 33 one-run wins — going 33-19 in one-run games.

The odds of leading the league in such victories in back-to-back seasons were somewhere between unlikely and astronomical — and they were similarly effective in two-run affairs. 

But four games into the season, the Mariners are 0-2 in games decided by two runs or fewer, falling 2-0 to the Guardians on Saturday and 6-5 on Sunday. The latter featured a four-pitch walk in the 10th inning and a throwing error by catcher Cal Raleigh, who could have ended the 10th with a proper toss to first but instead allowed the go-ahead run to cross home plate.

These things happen. And if anyone has some leeway after his 2022 heroics, it’s the Big Dumper. Still, the law of averages suggests the Mariners won’t continually pull out the tight ones the way they have in the previous two seasons. Particularly if they’re the ones inflicting their own wounds.

“We play in a lot of close games, and the reason we’ve been successful in winning a lot of those is because we play clean at the end of the game,” said Mariners manager Scott Servais, who lamented pitching mistakes in Saturday’s game and 10th-inning mishaps Sunday. “I’ve often said that what happens in these late-inning games, these extra-inning games — it’s not often that the team wins it, it’s that the other team maybe loses it. And that’s how I felt we did today.”

More notable than the losses in this opening series were the number of fans in the seats. T-Mobile Park drew 45,268 on opening day, 31,516 the next night, 44,250 for Julio Rodriguez bobblehead night Saturday and 34,045 on Sunday. These were impressive numbers for a fan base known for elite-level attendances when the M’s are playing well, but it’s fair to wonder what they are thinking right now.

Reason should highlight that the Mariners were competitive with a Cleveland squad fresh off a 92-win season, and that the M’s have a roster similar to the one that reached the playoffs for the first time in 21 years last season. But reason is oil to the water that is emotion — and emotion likely has some folks fretting after four games.

What’s refreshing is that the Mariners have seen quality showings from the majority of their pitchers — particularly starters Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert. What’s concerning is that they’ve managed just 12 runs over four games and watched starting pitcher Robbie Ray get placed on the 15-day injured list because of a Grade 1 left flexor strain.

Remember, the Mariners had near miraculous health on the starting-pitching front last season. Improbable that they would replicate that in 2023.

But again — it’s just four games. The M’s were 29-39 at one point last season before winning 61 of their next 94. And Rodriguez, their frontman, is hitting .333 with a .944 OPS, ostensibly riding the momentum of his Rookie of the Year 2022.

And it was Rodriguez who interjected during Raleigh’s postgame scrum with the media, as the catcher said that he simply needed to make a better throw to first in the 10th.

“Tomorrow is another game!” Rodriguez shouted.

It is — one against Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and the Angels. A winnable three-game series? Absolutely. But while their marketing team can go ahead and give away as many bobbleheads as it wants, the Mariners can’t give away runs.

They’ve haven’t had that luxury in a long time. They sure don’t have it now.