Mariners’ first half in a nutshell: Standout pitching, subpar hitting and a dance with .500

SEATTLE – Maybe it was a little too bold given their history.

Maybe it was a little too brash considering the difficulty.

By Mariners standards, this represented something different.

But, hey, it was opening day – when everyone’s goals are within reach, and they believed it more than most.

About 20 minutes before Luis Castillo fired the first pitch of the regular season, the Mariners debuted a slick hype video to start the season. It looked back at the success of 2022 and the expectations of this season, woven into a narrative of manager Scott Servais erasing the boxes they checked in 2022 on a white board and writing the reasons why they’d have success in 2023 in near-perfect penmanship.

The final words written by Servais under 2023 goals were: “Win It All!” and underlined with emphasis.

It brought goose bumps and hope to fans, even ones that were underwhelmed with their offseason moves, or lack thereof.

And at the nonmathematical “midway” point of the baseball season, that video has been a reference point not for hope, but frustration, during what has largely been a suboptimal first half of the season.

You can’t win it all if you don’t make the postseason.

It took an unexpected 7-3 surge in the final 10 games before the All-Star break for the Mariners to start showing signs of a turnaround. They won all three series to close out the “first half”: two out of three over the Rays (58-35) in Seattle, two out of three against the Giants (49-41) in San Francisco and three out of four over the beat-up Astros (50-41) at Minute Maid Park.

That stretch came after what had to be the low point of the season thus far, losing a three-game series at home to the Washington Nationals.

“To win the last three series gives us a little boost here going into the All-Star break,” Servais said after the final game Sunday in Houston. “It hasn’t been an easy first half. There have been some struggles. But you look up, right where we’re at now, we are (a) game over .500.”

Indeed, the Mariners have a 45-44 record and sit in third place in the American League West, six games back of the Texas Rangers, who limped into the All-Star break, losing 11 of 16 games. Texas holds a two-game lead over the Astros, who will likely get Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez back off the injured list after the break. The Mariners sit four games back of the third wild-card spot behind the Blue Jays, Astros, Yankees and Red Sox.

The first 89 games of the Mariners’ season have been a frustrating dance with mediocrity. Brilliant pitching, mostly from the starting rotation, has allowed them to win some games, while a lackluster offense featuring too many strikeouts and too many underperforming hitters has been the reason for far too many losses.

Their longest winning streak is four games, and their longest losing streak is four games. They’ve never been more than three games over .500 and never fell more than four games under .500.

Per FanGraphs’ Wins Above Replacement metric, the Mariners’ pitching has been 12.7 WAR, which ranks third in all of the MLB. The Mariners lead the league with 47 quality starts (at least six innings pitched while allowing three runs or fewer). They have a 32-15 record in those games. In those 15 losses, they are averaging 1.67 runs per game.

“Our pitching has carried us all season,” Ty France said.

Right-handers Luis Castillo, George Kirby and Logan Gilbert all rank in the top 13 in WAR among AL starters. Kirby’s 14 quality starts are tied for most in the MLB while Gilbert has 10 and Castillo has nine.

When veteran lefty Robbie Ray was lost for the season after one start, top pitching prospect Bryce Miller stepped into the rotation and has been solid as a rookie. When Marco Gonzales went on the injured list, fellow prospect Bryan Woo, who had 25 career minor league starts, proved to be so much more than an adequate replacement.

The bullpen has produced a 3.5 WAR this season, which ranks fourth in the MLB. It has done so with Andres Muñoz missing almost two-and-a-half months with a shoulder injury, and Penn Murfee’s season ending with an elbow injury. Thanks to contributions from offseason finds like Gabe Speier, Taylor Saucedo and Justin Topa and rookie Ty Adcock, the Mariners’ bullpen has been better than expected.

The Mariners’ offense has been producing 4.54 runs per game, which is slightly below league average. They rank near the bottom third in baseball in batting average (.233), on-base percentage (.312) and slugging percentage (.391), while having the second-highest strikeout rate at 27.5%.

They are 35-16 when they score at least four runs, and they are 10-28 when they fail to score four runs.

They have four players who have struck out more than 100 times: Teoscar Hernandez (115), Jarred Kelenic (113), Eugenio Suarez (106) and Julio Rodriguez (101).

In 904 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, Mariners hitters have struck out 221 times – second most in the AL. Of the six AL teams with more than 900 plate appearances with runners in scoring position, the Mariners have scored the second-fewest runs (294).

It’s been a constant source of consternation with Servais and the hitting coaches, believing that changes to individual and overall team approach at the plate needed to be made.

Servais called multiple meetings in the first few months of the season, while the players held their own private meeting following their debacle against the Nationals.

Slow starts from Hernandez and Suarez weren’t surprising but still difficult to overcome, while Rodriguez’s inconsistent start to the season highlighted how important he was in driving Seattle’s offense.

The last 10 games provided hope for sustained improvement. The Mariners averaged 5.1 runs per game, posting a .260/.351/.430 slash line with 89 hits, 37 walks and 98 strikeouts.

“A lot of good things offensively,” Servais said in Houston. “We’ve got to carry it over. The traffic of runners on base is the biggest reason we’ve been more consistent, and then you run into some (slugging) and that’s how you put up crooked numbers.”

Maybe that white board doesn’t need to be erased quite yet.