A Grip on Sports: After a break-even first 100 games, the numbers begin to work against the Mariners

A GRIP ON SPORTS • We’re not afraid of numbers. Far be it. We know how to figure out percentages, averages and projections. It’s all because of baseball, a game that just doesn’t revolve around numbers, it breathes because of them.

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• That being said, using numbers to determine how to play the game scared us. Not because we were worried the specialty wouldn’t work but because we knew it would. Analytics, as the discipline is known, isn’t new. It’s what great players and managers have been using forever, albeit a back-of-the-envelope version.

Great catchers and pitchers have studied opponents since Abner Doubleday, searching for weaknesses and exploiting them when possible. Shortstops have positioned themselves based on a complex mental formula that not only included the hitter’s stance and bat speed but the way the guy on the mound was going to attack. Same with outfielders.

The smart ones, anyway. But now everyone has access to such information. And the game is a little less unpredictable.

All that serves a prologue to what we are about to say. When a team has split its first 100 games right down the middle, we have a pretty good idea of what term to use to describe it.

Average. No, wait. That’s too, well, average. Mediocre? Too harsh. How about Middling? Maybe run-of-the-mill suits you Anglophiles. No, that’s too snooty. Let’s keep it simple. Typical seems about right.

The 2023 Seattle Mariners are your typical middle-of-the-pack baseball team. And, barring some impossible-to-foresee August or September magic, that’s how they’ll finish a season that began with such hope.

Monday night’s loss in Minnesota epitomized the 50/50 nature of the season so well. Heck, the ninth inning alone is enough of an example to fill a 30-for-30. It begins with the M’s down 2-1 despite another well-pitched game from Luis Castillo and some outstanding middle relief work. The American League Central Twins have one of their closers, Griffin Jax, on the mound. He gets two quick outs.

Searching for a tie, Scott Servais uses Cal Raleigh as a pinch-hitter because Raleigh can do that with one swing.

He doesn’t. But he does ground a single up the middle with two strikes. Taylor Trammell runs for Raleigh. Mainly because the next pinch hitter, Kolton Wong, had about as much chance of hitting a home run as you do of winning PowerBall.

Buy a ticket, because Wong took an 0-2 slider into the planter atop the right-field fence, putting the M’s on top 3-2 by about a foot.

Even Wong seemed to be laughing at the improbability of it all. But because this is the year of reverting to the mean in every aspect, the lead wouldn’t survive.

With Paul Servais on the edge of being run down, Andres Munoz came out of the bullpen. He got a quick out. Hope rose a notch. Alex Kirilloff doubled to left. Hope fell. Max Kepler doubled to right. Despair descended.

Even though Munoz rallied to keep the Twins at bay with two strikeouts, Seattle’s best chance of winning seemed to be gone. It was.

A scoreless top of the 10th, highlighted by Julio Rodriguez lack of situational hitting with J.P. Crawford the runner at second, led to Minnesota scratching out the winning run in the bottom half. And the Mariners’ season leveling off after 100 games.

Remember, the M’s won 90 games last season to earn a wild-card spot. The last A.L. playoff team was the Rays, who won 86. Let’s say those win totals are needed to make the 2023 playoffs.

To get to 86, the Mariners would need to finish 36-26. That doesn’t seem that hard. But there is the problem of, as Sesame Street’s Count might say, four. That’s the number of teams ahead of the M’s in the chase for the last postseason spot. They all have a head start, ranging from 5 ½ games (Toronto) to a game (the Angels). Leapfrogging all may take another five wins or so. A 41-21 finish seems way-too hard.

Numbers, man. They are tough to figure. Especially when your math skills, like the local baseball team, are just average.

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WSU: Around the Pac-12 and the nation, the renovations at Oregon State’s Reser Stadium are almost done. … Speaking of the Beavers, here is their best road trip. … Colorado will have a new kicker this season. … How many games will Utah win in 2023? … California’s players are trying to open doors for local kids – and avoid narrow losses. … Can Stanford overcome losing 17 transfers? … Why did the Oregon athletic department treat its beach volleyball team so poorly? Because it could. … USC freshman basketball player Bronny James suffered a cardiac arrest Monday at practice but is reported to be OK.

Gonzaga: Top 2024 recruit Asa Newell is on campus for a visit, as Theo Lawson tells us in this early morning story. The power forward just finished playing for the USA’s U19 team.

EWU: Over the past couple decades, the Eagles have seemingly been among the top two or three football programs each season. At least according to the preseason predictions. Not this year. Not from the coaches and the media, who both picked Eastern to finish seventh in the 12-team conference. Dan Thompson was at media day in Spokane yesterday and has this story. … Elsewhere in the Big Sky, we can pass along a couple stories from media day about Montana and another pair concerning Montana State. There is a trio about Northern Colorado and one from UC Davis. Otherwise, crickets.  

Idaho: The Vandals took a jump last year under first-year football coach Jason Eck. They are expected to take another this season, though the media, which picked them second behind Montana State in the preseason poll, expect even more than the coaches (fifth). Colton Clark has the story from media day. … Jesse Tinsley also has a photo gallery from Monday’s event.

Preps: Colville High graduate Emilee (Lepp) Gisler was recently named to the Linfield University Athletics Hall of Fame. That news starts off the latest S-R local briefs column.

Indians: Relief pitcher Angel Chivilli has been learning on the job. Which, basically, is what minor league baseball is all about. Dave Nichols explains why Chivilli’s lessons are a little more in-depth.

Mariners: We linked the M’s game story above. Here too as well, in case you missed it. … Seattle’s right-handed starting pitchers have been good. They would be great if they did better against left-handed hitters.

Seahawks: Not only did the Hawks extend Uchenna Nwosu yesterday, the deal may have freed up around $5 million in cap space. Any “little” bit helps. … Here’s another roster ranking. We’re almost to the top 10.

Storm: A nine-game losing streak is tough to deal with. Ten? That would be even worse. But it’s probable as Seattle faces the New York Liberty next.

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• There is less than a week left in July. Baseball’s trade deadline looms. Will the M’s sell players such as Teoscar Hernandez? Or will they look to supplement the offense and make an effort to win another 40 games? Stay tuned. Until later …