What to watch for when Seahawks take on Rams in Week 1

RENTON, Wash. – The last time a Seahawks game counted at Lumen Field, Quandre Diggs picked off a Baker Mayfield pass in overtime, propelling Seattle to a win over the Los Angeles Rams and an eventual playoff berth.

So maybe it makes some sense that it’s the Rams who will help Seattle usher in a new season, the franchise’s 48th.

The Seahawks swept the season series a year ago, though doing so in games the Rams were quarterbacked by John Wolford and Mayfield.

Matthew Stafford is back for this one, though receiver Cooper Kupp is not, out with a nagging hamstring injury.

Also back is middle linebacker Bobby Wagner – this time again with the Seahawks and not the Rams after his year in L.A.

Here’s our weekly look at what to watch.

Matchup to watch

Seahawks defensive line against Rams offensive line

There will be no more scrutinized position group on the Seahawks than the interior defensive line after Seattle’s struggles stopping the run a year ago – which led to a wholesale makeover of the middle of the defense. On paper, this should be an advantageous matchup as the Rams finished 27th in rushing last season, both in total yards (1,661) and yards per attempt (4.0) and as the week began had still not publicly settled on a starting offensive line, with a couple of spots still up for grabs.

The Rams have a quality running back in Cam Akers, who ended last season with three straight 100-yard games, including 104 on 21 carries in the season finale against the Seahawks at Lumen, a game in which L.A. had 146 yards rushing overall. The Rams had 171 yards rushing against Seattle when the teams met in L.A. earlier in the year. Seattle’s D-line will try to make an early statement that this year isn’t last year.

Player to watch

WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba

The precocious rookie has already impressed coaches and teammates with his ability on the field and his toughness to come back from a slight fracture in his wrist to miss only a week of practices and return in time to play the season opener. Now to see exactly how the snaps and targets will begin to come together for Seattle’s three-headed receiving corps of DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and Smith-Njigba. Oh, and expect Jake Bobo to get a few snaps and targets, too.

Coaching decision to watch

Will there be a rotation at cornerback?

While Tre Brown is listed as the starter at left cornerback, coach Pete Carroll this week declared that Brown is still in a dead heat at that spot with Michael Jackson. Jackson spent much of camp as the starter, but Brown appeared to take over most of the starter’s reps late in the preseason. The Seahawks could rotate Brown and Jackson. For years, Carroll preferred to pick a starter and let that player get all the snaps. He has been increasingly willing to rotate over the past few years, and he could let both play against the Rams to further sort out the competition.

The X-factor

Home-field advantage

Seattle’s prowess at home is not a new story. But it bears repeating as the team begins another season. The Seahawks enter the year with the fifth-best home record in the NFL since Carroll took over in 2010 at 72-33. That includes a 12-1 record in home openers – the only home opener the team lost in the Carroll era came in 2021 against Tennessee in overtime. Before that, Seattle’s last loss in a home opener came in 2008. The Seahawks memorably upset Denver and Russell Wilson 17-16 in its home opener a year ago.

Player who could surprise

SS Julian Love

This game is exactly why the Seahawks signed Love as he’ll start at strong safety alongside Diggs at free safety with Jamal Adams still out. Love played eight snaps in the preseason as the Seahawks didn’t play many of their starters much, so this game will represent his true Seattle debut. Also expect the Seahawks to unveil some of their specialty defensive packages – such as their six-defensive back sets – that they kept under wraps in the preseason. Love will be a key part of those even once Adams returns.

Key stat

Third-down conversions

The Seahawks were about as erratic from one game to the next last season as could be when it came to converting on third down. The two games against the Rams were typical – Seattle was 5 for 10 on third down in the win in Los Angeles in December but just 1 of 11 in the rematch in January, the main reason the Seahawks had to go to overtime to finally win that one despite outgaining the Rams 402 to 269. That typified a year in which the Seahawks ended up just 20th in the NFL in third-down conversion percentage at 38.32%. Quarterback Geno Smith has said improving on third downs and the red zone is the key to taking the offense to an even higher level, saying one of the main keys is winning more one-on-one matchups. This will be an interesting test of Seattle’s progress.

Prediction

Seahawks 24, Rams 13.

Games against the Rams are never easy, and this one doesn’t figure to be either. But the absence of Kupp is a big gift for a Seattle defense determined to have a better season than a year ago. Seattle’s running game should wear down the Rams some and set up a few big plays by Smith and the passing attack. And expect Wagner to play especially inspired ball in his Seattle return.