Commentary: Mariners’ sights should be set on winning the AL West, not the wild card
After three decades, Jay Buhner still said it best:
Fudge the wild card.
(Only, to reference Ralphie in “A Christmas Story”: he didn’t say “fudge.”)
Buhner – Seattle’s beloved, bald slugger – made that declaration in September 1995, as the Mariners sprinted to a photo finish in the American League West. They trailed the California Angels by 11 games on Aug. 8, but won a one-game playoff (and the West) less than two months later.
As for Aug. 8, 2025? Seattle entered a weekend series with the Tampa Bay Rays at 63-53, just 1.5 games behind hobbled Houston. They led the Yankees by 1.5 games for the AL’s second wild card, with Cleveland (59-55) and Texas (60-56) also fighting on the fringe.
Don’t get me wrong: for a franchise with one playoff appearance in 22-year-old rookie Cole Young’s life, any October baseball counts as progress.
But don’t get me wrong, again: these Mariners should win the West.
That doesn’t mean they will. But it shouldn’t be considered an overreach, either. Not when, with the trade deadline additions of former Diamondbacks Eugenio Suárez and Josh Naylor, Seattle touts the division’s most lethal lineup. Not when, at its best, the Mariners’ starting rotation is deeper than any in the state of Texas. Not when, according to winning percentage, the Mariners have MLB’s 10th-easiest schedule for a late-summer sprint.
Not when their primary competition is buried in band aids.
The 2025 Astros are far from the boogeymen Seattle fans have been haunted by. Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman and Justin Verlander are elsewhere. Yordan Alvarez has been on the injured list with a fractured hand since early May. There are currently 13 other Astros on the IL as well, including seven starting pitchers.
The Astros are dangerous, no doubt. Shortstop Jeremy Pena has been an on-base bandit, slashing .324/.379/.494. Starting pitchers Hunter Brown (2.47 ERA, 0.985 WHIP) and Framber Valdez (2.83 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) provide a 1-2 punch for an otherwise injured rotation. Headed by six-time All-Star closer Josh Hader, Houston touts one of baseball’s best bullpens – ranking second in opponent batting average (. 213) and WHIP (1.17) and third in ERA (3.34).
Even at 35, Jose Altuve is still infuriatingly effective – slashing .280/.341/.458 with 19 homers and 59 RBIs.
And above all else, Houston has the weight of history, with seven division titles and two World Series wins in the past eight seasons.
When it comes to winning the division, fans will have to see it to believe it. Rightfully so.
But internally, the Mariners should believe they’re better.
“We feel like we have as good a lineup as there is in our league,” Mariners president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto said after the trade deadline. “Our rotation, if the guys do the things that they do, has proven it can be as good as anybody in this league. The guys in the back of that bullpen are really good if we give them the opportunity to get a little bit of rest in between. Hopefully we hit on all cylinders going forward.”
That’s the argument, the blueprint to believe.
But though they entered the weekend with six wins in seven tries since the trade deadline, the Mariners have yet to hit on all cylinders.
As of Saturday morning, Suárez (6-51 with 1 HR, 4 RBIs and 22 strikeouts in his last 14 games) and catcher Cal Raleigh (5-36 with 2 HRs, 6 RBIs and 17 Ks in his last 9 games) were mired in simultaneous slumps. Perhaps Raleigh’s dramatic three-run homer on Friday night that sent the M’s to a dramatic 3-2 come-from-behind win over Tampa Bay will help him snap out of it.
Naylor was removed from Thursday’s game with shoulder soreness, a reminder that any single swing can swing momentum. Starting pitcher Bryce Miller surrendered three homers in Thursday’s rehab start in Tacoma, clouding the expectations surrounding his rotation return.
Oh, and the Mariners’ bullpen depth remains dubious, after Dipoto and Co. missed on trading for former Twins closer Jhoan Duran.
But guess what? The American League is littered with imperfect options. The Astros are 5-5 in their last 10 games and 9-11 in the second half. The Yankees, who recently lost five straight to Miami and Texas, are helplessly affixed to the health of Aaron Judge’s flexor tendon. The Tigers were swept by Seattle at home to end the first half. The Rangers are 18-22 against the rest of the AL West.
Who is Seattle supposed to be scared of?
The Mariners have five All-Stars, as many as the reigning World Series champion Dodgers. They have two of the five best home-run hitters in baseball. They have two outfielders, Julio Rodriguez and Randy Arozarena, who have sprinted into the second half. They have a possible right field rotation of Dominic Canzone, Luke Raley and Victor Robles when September rolls around. They have Young, an intriguing 21-year-old, who prior to Friday’s game hit .279 with a .354 on-base percentage in his past 45 games. They have at least four polished starting pitchers and two relievers (Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash) with sub-two ERAs.
They also have decades of broken dreams and emotional baggage, which makes it hard to have hope.
The Mariners are imperfect. They’re also positioned to potentially win more than a wild card.
So, fudge another second-place finish.
Only, I didn’t say fudge.