The favorite is the class of the Preakness field — but the odds are dismal

The 150th Preakness Stakes arrives with a twist. Kentucky Derby winner Sovereignty will not compete, ending this year’s Triple Crown bid before it had a chance to begin. Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott opted to rest the colt and aim for the Belmont Stakes instead, citing long-term health over history-making ambition. With Sovereignty out and the field considerably less alluring, our betting strategy should shift to new shooters and potential value plays in the exotic markets of exactas, trifectas and superfectas.

Instead of giving just one horse to win in this space, here are a few wagers to consider, using different selection criteria while also taking advantage of various betting options.

Journalism is the class of the field

“Class of the field” refers to the relative quality or proven ability of the leading horse compared to its competitors, often based on the level of races the horses have run in. A horse considered the “class of the field” has typically competed against tougher competition and shown strong results, giving it a potential edge even if its recent speed figures or form appear modest.

Brisnet race rating measures the overall quality of horses that actually competed in a race. The higher the number, the tougher the competition. An average Grade I stakes race carries a race rating of 120. A one-point edge over a competitor is considered “significant” by Brisnet, while an edge of two or more points is considered a “substantial” class advantage. Journalism’s highest race rating during a victory towers over this field, three points higher than any other horse.

Further, since the Kentucky Derby points system was adopted in 2012, nine of the 13 Preakness winners had won at least one graded stakes race before claiming the second leg of the Triple Crown. More than half of those nine (five) won a Grade I race.

Journalism has the obvious edge here, too. The son of Curlin boasts a 4-1-1 record – four wins, a second and a third – in six starts, including a commanding win in the Grade I Santa Anita Derby. He was the 3-1 morning-line favorite in the Kentucky Derby and finished a strong second, just 1½ lengths behind Sovereignty. It seems clear he has produced strong results against the best competition, but unfortunately, the prices you will get for Journalism will be dismal. In situations like this, we should avoid a straight win wager entirely and instead try to create more value in the exotic pools such as exactas, trifectas and superfectas. More on that in a bit.

Best of the new shooters

In recent years, “new shooters” – horses that bypassed the Kentucky Derby and started their Triple Crown journey in the Preakness – have found notable success in Baltimore. The past five Preakness winners did not start in the Run for the Roses and came into the second leg of the Triple Crown a month or more removed from their previous start. These victories highlight the strategic value of directly targeting the Preakness, offering fresh contenders a significant opportunity to shine – and six such new shooters appear in this year’s field.

The new shooter with the most upside is Gosger. Sired by 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist and out of a Tapit mare, Gosger boasts a lineage rich in stamina and class. In just his third career start, he captured the Grade III Lexington Stakes at Keeneland with a decisive two-length victory, showcasing a stalking running style that suits the Preakness’ oval. It’s also worth noting the duo of trainer Brendan Walsh and jockey Luis Saez have won six of 12 races over the past 60 days, returning a profit of $3.08 for every $2 wagered to win, per data from Brisnet.

Horse that benefits most from the likely pace

The “pace of the race” is an estimate of how fast the horses are expected to run in the early stages, especially during the opening quarter- and half-mile. It’s shaped by the running styles of the entrants. If several front-runners are entered, the pace is likely to be fast and contested. If not, it should be slower. Pace affects which horses should have an advantage. Fast early fractions can tire out the leaders and set up the closers, while a slow pace often favors horses near the front. The past eight Preakness winners won after running on the lead or within a few lengths of the pacesetter. In total, only five Preakness winners since 2000 could be classified as closers.

One type of horse we can toss immediately are the one-dimensional front-runners, those that falter if they don’t have a clear lead by the first call (the half-mile mark in routes). Clever Again is that kind of horse. Both of his wins have come wire-to-wire, a feat he is unlikely to duplicate here. There also shouldn’t be a fast enough pace to set up a closer such as Sandman.

Instead, if you’re thinking about pace, focus on River Thames. He’s shown an ability to win as a front-runner and to keep close to the leaders even if the pace is swift, like it was during his third-place finish in the Grade I Blue Grass Stakes last month despite being four- or five-wide in the upper stretch.

What if it rains?

AccuWeather says there is a good chance of rain on Saturday at Pimlico, with the potential for “flooding downpours.” If the Preakness is run on an off track, Goal Oriented and Journalism are the most trustworthy contenders. Goal Oriented wired an allowance field over a sloppy Churchill surface on Derby Day, earning a Brisnet final speed figure of 104, the highest off-track speed rating in the field. Journalism earned the second-highest speed figure in the slop (102) while finishing second in the Kentucky Derby. American Promise also owns a muddy-track win, albeit as a 2-year-old.