The pick: Why Washington State will beat Toledo

PULLMAN – Talk to anyone in the Washington State football orbit, fans to former players to casual observers from afar, and this sentiment has seemed to hover over the program recently.

Yeah, the Cougars may have lost to Ole Miss and Virginia, but they went toe-to-toe with two ranked Power 4 teams on the road. Play like that against their remaining opponents and they’ll be in good shape.

That kind of phrasing doesn’t capture the caliber of WSU’s next opponent, Toledo. In Saturday’s game, the Cougars will be going up against a Rocket defense that ranks in the nation’s top 10 in several key metrics, including pass defense, run defense and stop rate, which is the percentage of a defense’s drives that end in punts, turnovers or a turnover on downs. The Rockets have done so on 78% of opportunities, No. 5 nationally.

Nothing Toledo has accomplished on defense should be discredited.

But the same goes for WSU, which has looked – even in defeat – excellent recently. Here’s predicting that the progress the Cougars have made in their rushing attack, in their defense, will be enough to beat a Rocket team that has yet to win on the road this fall.

The Cougs’ defense could be the group that swings this one WSU’s way. The Rockets’ offensive line is vulnerable, to put it charitably, giving up six sacks on 55 pressures. That could open things up for WSU defensive ends Bobby Terrell and Buddha Peleti, and if they succeed in throwing off the timing of Toledo quarterback Tucker Gleason, their defense could snag its first interception of the season.

The Cougars remain one of two teams in the country without a pick. Look for them to end that trend on Saturday and ride the momentum to a victory, getting back to .500 and putting their bowl prospects in clearer view.

The pick: Washington State 27, Toledo 20