Two-minute drill: Washington State’s keys to victory against North Texas
DALLAS – Here is what to watch for when Washington State visits North Texas at 12:30 p.m. Saturday on ESPNU.
When North Texas has the ball …
Under head coach Eric Morris, who worked as WSU’s offensive coordinator in 2022 and helped make Cougars out of quarterbacks Cam Ward and John Mateer, the Mean Green operate the kind of offense you might expect: high-tempo and lots of passing, making full use of quarterback Drew Mestemaker.
Before starting UNT’s bowl game last winter, Mestemaker hadn’t started at quarterback since the ninth grade, but Morris and coaches have helped turn him into the kind of signal-caller that poses a real challenge for WSU’s defense. Through two games, both wins, Mestemaker has completed 42 of 65 passes (65%) for 553 yards and five touchdowns. He has not yet thrown an interception.
He may not be a dual-threat quarterback in the traditional sense – he’s far more comfortable sitting in the pocket and throwing lasers over the field – but he is comfortable making plays with his legs. He’s carried 10 times for 54 yards this season, including one 31-yard scamper last week. In last season’s bowl game, he ripped off a 70-yard touchdown run.
That puts some pressure on the Cougars’ defense, which is getting veteran safety Cale Reeder back from injury at an opportune time, making an already formidable safety corps even more scary. Alongside fellow veterans Tucker Large and Matt Durrance, that part of the field profiles as an advantage for WSU.
Maybe the most important question: Can the Cougars force Mestemaker to beat them with underneath and intermediate throws? In his first two games this season, he’s earned a Pro Football Focus grade on deep throws (20-plus yards) of 94.9. Among QBs with at least 10 deep throws, that ranks second in the country.
(As an aside, Mestemaker has only completed 4 of those 11 throws, which is just 36%. But PFF gives significant boosts for so-called big-time throws, of which Mestemaker has five. That ranks third nationwide with the same qualifiers.)
Either way, it’s another opportunity for the Cougars’ pass rush, which roared to life last weekend. Third-year defensive end Isaac Terrell recorded the first 1.5 sacks of his career, one of which went for a safety. He shared one sack with transfer end Buddha Peleti. Veteran defensive tackle Max Baloun also got home for his first sack at WSU.
Against UNT’s offensive line, which has yielded three sacks this season, can the Cougars produce in a similar way? That much may feature prominently in Saturday’s outcome.
When WSU has the ball …
The Cougars would do well to get the offense that tallied 36 points in a runaway win over San Diego State, not the one that slogged to just one touchdown in a close win over FCS Idaho. Their offense has shown tendencies to go hot and cold, best evidenced by their back-to-back three-and-outs to open last week’s game.
But when WSU has found ways to reduce penalties and play its own game, fantastic results have followed. Last week, QB Jaxon Potter completed 28 of 42 passes for 257 yards and three touchdowns, including two to tight end Trey Leckner. After the game, WSU coach Jimmy Rogers denied an emphasis on involving tight ends in the passing game – the game prior, WSU tight ends were targeted just twice – but it’s added another gear to the Cougars’ offense.
Can WSU keep that going against North Texas’ defense, which shut out FCS Lamar in Week 1 and permitted 30 points to Western Michigan in an overtime win last week? The interesting part is that might depend on how much Rogers and coaches remain open to change. To beat San Diego State, Potter uncorked 42 passes, the most by a QB in Rogers’ 32 games as a head coach.
Rogers realized the team’s preferred run-first style wasn’t working, at least not as a first option. So they swapped identities: They used the pass to set up the run. “If we have to do that, we have to do that,” Rogers said after the game. “I’m not one to ram a square peg down a round hole.”
Do the Cougs stick to that approach on Saturday? In their win over Lamar, the Mean Green allowed just 31 rushing yards. Against Western Michigan, that number skyrocketed to 216. They might be fundamentally sound on that end, missing just eight tackles combined this year, but they could be vulnerable on the ground.
If so, that would be music to the ears of Rogers, who remains committed to an efficient ground attack. He was pleased with the Cougars’ offensive showing last week, but he’s wary about the long-term effectiveness. The way he sees it, his offense has to be able to grind out rushing yards to win closer games, and Saturday’s might well play out that way.
WSU’s offensive line was responsible for a couple costly penalties last week, including a holding call on right guard AJ Vaipulu. But all told, that unit showed significant improvement. If that trend continues in Denton, look for the Cougars’ offense to find the balanced attack that Rogers and offensive coordinator Danny Freund have been trying to establish.