Tropical Storm Gabrielle has formed. Here’s where it could go next.
Tropical Storm Gabrielle formed Tuesday morning in the open central Atlantic, but it’s basically been a mess ever since. The lopsided system, which has been left ragged as it battles harsh mid-level winds, is struggling for now - but it could be a hurricane by this weekend.
It’s the first named storm to roam the Atlantic since Fernand dissipated on Aug. 28. There has only been one hurricane this season - Erin - which became a Category 5 northeast of Puerto Rico on Aug. 17. Since then, the season’s been weirdly quiet. According to Phil Klotzbach, a hurricane researcher at Colorado State University, this has been the first season since 1992 to have no named storms form between Aug. 24 and Sept. 16.
For now, the Atlantic is running about 48 percent behind average in terms of season-to-date activity.
The good news is that Gabrielle doesn’t look poised to hit land. But there are two additional tropical waves behind it that bear watching.
There’s also activity brewing in the western Pacific, with newly-minted Tropical Storm Neoguri set to intensify rapidly. It could slam the Philippines, or pass south of Taiwan, as a Category 4- or 5-equivalent super typhoon. The greatest risk would be Friday or Saturday.
- - -
Gabrielle now
On Thursday morning, Gabrielle was categorized as a 50 mph tropical storm over the central Atlantic, though - admittedly - it might not actually be a tropical storm in structure. The National Hurricane Center noted Gabrielle was “struggling,” and is, at best, heavily lopsided.
It “consists of a swirl of low-level clouds with patches of deep [thunderstorms] over the northeast and southeast quadrants of the storm,” it wrote. This comes after the system’s center re-formed on Wednesday northeast of its previous location, which resulted in the projected track shifting north, as well.
A scatterometer, or a device mounted on an overhead satellite that ascertains wind speeds by sensing the choppiness of the ocean below, found winds well below 50 mph. The system may hardly be a tropical storm, which requires winds of 40 mph or greater.
In the short term, Gabrielle is being impeded by dry air and shear - or changing winds with height. That shear has knocked Gabrielle off-kilter, keeping it a bit out-of-whack and preventing further strengthening.
- - -
Gabrielle’s future
But the storm could begin to strengthen as shear weakens.
Waters ahead of the storm are quite supportive for swift, if not rapid, intensification later this week. Gabrielle is over a region of water temperatures around 82 or 83 degrees, and will encounter even warmer waters as it treks northwestward toward, and eventually passes east of, Bermuda.
Thunderstorms could blossom over the system’s low-level swirl, lifting air up and away from the surface and allowing air pressure to decrease. That would create a void of “missing” air that fosters stronger winds.
“Confidence in the long range forecast remains low, and interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor Gabrielle over the next several days,” wrote the National Hurricane Center. The agency still predicts Gabrielle to be a Category 1 hurricane by Sunday though as it swirls over the open Atlantic.