Mariners’ success doesn’t start and stop on mound anymore. That’s a good thing | Commentary
PEORIA, Ariz. — The Seattle Mariners’ starting rotation had to do too much for too long. It had to carry a lineup that couldn’t stop striking out and an ownership group that struck out looking every offseason. It had to stack strikeouts and quality starts for six consecutive months, avoiding injury in an era terrorized by Tommy John. It had to be everything for a taped-together team — at least, until the trade deadline. It had to be the overwhelming reason this team could contend.
As I wrote on March 25, 2025: “So, it’s the same old story. For Seattle to sniff postseason play, its starting pitching has to be the best in baseball. Again.”
You can see how I came to that conclusion. Last offseason, the Mariners’ impact additions were — *checks notes* — 31-year-old oft-injured infielder Jorge Polanco, undersized 37-year-old utility man Donovan Solano and 30-year-old journeyman first baseman Rowdy Tellez. They entered Opening Day with mammoth question marks at first, second and third base. Tellez hadn’t had a WAR above zero since 2022. Solano had 40 homers in 11 MLB seasons. The Mariners’ order didn’t have a back half.
That was then.
There’s a new story now.
Suddenly, remarkably, the Mariners may have the American League’s most complete roster. They re-signed fan favorite first baseman Josh Naylor and added do-everything All-Star infielder Brendan Donovan. They signed veteran Rob Refsnyder to mash lefties. They traded for 25-year-old Jose A. Ferrer, adding a second lethal lefty in the bullpen. They brought back five All-Stars, headed by MVP runner-up Cal Raleigh and MVP hopeful Julio Rodríguez.
“I wouldn’t want to pitch against us,” Mariners pitcher Bryce Miller said Thursday. “I think it’s going to be a lot of fun watching the offense this year. We’re going to score a lot of runs, and I think we’re going to be one of the best pitching staffs in the league. Those two combinations I think are a pretty good recipe for success and for winning the division and reaching our goals.”
It’s refreshing to write, and believe, that Seattle doesn’t have to have baseball’s best starting rotation to reach those goals.
The question is whether this starting staff can still be baseball’s best.
Because after several seasons of remarkable consistency, injuries intervened in 2025. Luis Castillo was Seattle’s only starter to avoid the injured list. A crew that led MLB with 92 quality starts in 2024 mustered 67 (21 from Bryan Woo) a season later. The Mariners’ rotation slid to 13th in MLB in ERA (3.97), 14th in FanGraphs WAR (11.0) and 21st in homers per nine innings (1.32).
This wasn’t a Lamborghini caroming off a cliff. The Mariners’ rotation was still effective, if unfamiliarly fallible.
“In this game, obviously you learn a lot every single day. But I think you learn a little bit more when you go through tougher times,” Mariners manager Dan Wilson said Friday. “Some of those guys on the mound went through injuries last year. Those are tougher obstacles to overcome. Logan [Gilbert] going on [the injured list] for the first time was something he had to get over at some point. I think these guys learned a lot, and they’re ready to take what they learned and put it to use on the field.”
Now, Woo must prove he can stay healthy after missing the ALDS with a pectoral injury. Miller must prove he’s still the starter that ascended in 2024. Gilbert and George Kirby must prove they can reclaim their All-Star form. Luis Castillo must prove he can still deliver at age 33. The Mariners must prove there’s an undeniable ace among them, and that last season’s health hiccups were an aberration.
OK, maybe not “must,” considering the Mariners’ improved supporting cast.
But this core’s ceiling is uncertain. The Big Lead recently ranked the Mariners’ rotation third in MLB. CBS Sports slotted Seattle fifth. When MLB.com listed the league’s premier 1-2 punches, Woo and Kirby tied for sixth with the Toronto Blue Jays. FanGraphs projected each rotation’s 2026 WAR, and the Mariners sat ninth.
Ninth?
Ninth.
Of course, that’s not the metric that matters most.
“Obviously we faced some obstacles with some of the injures, but look how far we were able to go, one win away from being in the World Series,” Castillo said Friday, after surrendering four hits and three runs across 1.1 innings in his first Cactus League start. “I think we just try to stay healthy, and if we do that we can accomplish a lot of great things here.”
Or, as new addition Donovan offered on 710 AM Seattle Sports: “This team’s good, man. This team is as close to a World Series as I’ve seen any Seattle team. That’s the consensus when you walk in the door. The first thing that jumps out, I think it starts and stops on the mound, and you have the best staff in baseball.”
I’m not sure they do, and I’m not sure they need to.
Because it doesn’t start and stop on the mound for the Mariners. Not anymore.