Spring outlook in PNW favors above-normal temperatures, below-average precipitation

Spring officially arrived Friday, and new forecasts say it’s shaping up to be a warm few months for most Americans.

The news comes as much of the West has already been enduring a summer preview from a record-smashing heat dome , which has sent tens of millions running for the air conditioner and the pool.

Meanwhile, drought conditions are forecast to worsen or develop for many areas in the West and south-central Plains, according to NOAA’s Spring Outlook released March 20 for April through June.

What’s the spring forecast for the US?

According to NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, the April-May-June temperature outlook favors above-normal seasonal temperatures for much of the contiguous United States, with the exception of parts of the northern Plains, upper Mississippi Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast.

“The highest probabilities (greater than 60 percent) of above-normal temperatures are forecast for areas of the central Great Basin and Rockies to parts of the Southwest,” the CPC said in an online forecast.

As for precipitation, the April-May-June outlook shows below-normal seasonal precipitation amounts for the Pacific Northwest, much of the Intermountain West and Rockies as well as areas in the central High and Great Plains.

Meanwhile, above-normal precipitation is favored for most of western Alaska and for a region that includes the eastern Great Lakes, the mid-Atlantic and parts of the Southeast, according to the CPC.

What part of the nation will be hottest this spring?

The highest odds for above-normal temperatures, including potential extreme heat episodes, are for the interior West, the central and southern Rockies, the Southwest, and the central and southern Plains, said Jon Gottschalck, the chief of the operational prediction branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, in an email to USA TODAY.

What about spring flooding?

The overall flood risk across most of the continental U.S. for spring 2026 is currently assessed as normal to below normal, NOAA said in a statement. This risk determination was made primarily because of a dry and warm winter that resulted in dry soils over much of the eastern U.S., mitigating the threat of rainfall-driven flooding. Additionally, a well-below-normal snowpack across most of the country will reduce the risk of snowmelt-driven flooding.

However, the Red River of the North and the lower Ohio Valley typically experience flooding annually; therefore, flooding is anticipated in these basins this year as well, NOAA said.

“We anticipate typical spring flooding this year over portions of the Greater Mississippi River Basin, but the risk for widespread significant flooding is low,” said Ed Clark, director of NOAA’s National Water Center, in a statement. “However, it is crucial to remember that heavy rainfall has the potential to lead to a major flooding event.”

Typical spring pattern in the Midwest, Northeast as heat dome expands in the West

For the immediate future, AccuWeather said that cold and warm air will trade places multiple times across the Midwest and Northeast in the coming weeks, a pattern typical of spring.

The next rebound in temperatures is already underway in parts of the Midwest and will spread to portions of the Northeast into the weekend as the edge of a massive, record-smashing heat dome in the Southwest expands.

The western heat dome has already broken the record for hottest March day in U.S. history as temperatures soar into the 90s and even past 100 degrees in some cities, levels more typical of late spring or early summer, AccuWeather said.

What is a heat dome?

A heat dome, like the one baking the West now, is a sprawling area of high pressure that promotes hot and dry conditions for days or weeks at a time.

“Heat domes are a lot like a balloon,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Alan Reppert explained. “They expand and contract as the day goes by, and when you are inside of it, it can be very warm.”

Heat domes can also prevent clouds from forming, resulting in abundant sunshine that boosts temperatures, potentially toward record levels.

As temperatures swell, so too does the cooling demand which can increase the strain on the power grid of an entire region. Extended hot and dry spells can also cause drought conditions to develop or worsen, AccuWeather said in an online report.

AccuWeather meteorologist Tom Kines told USA TODAY in an email that “one concern we have about this early season heatwave across Southern California is it will cause the ground cover to brown up much earlier than usual, which could spell trouble/increase the fire danger if there is a Santa Ana event at some point in April or May.”