AL West watch: What to expect from Mariners and the rest of the division in 2026
Figuring out the penthouse and the outhouse of the American League West going into the 2026 season is the easy part.
How the middle shuffles out is where the uncertainty lies.
The Seattle Mariners go into the 2026 season as the clear favorites in the AL West after winning their first division title in 24 years. They are clearly in the conversation for the best team in the American League and one of the betting favorites for the AL pennant.
Conversely, the Los Angeles Angels is one of the clear favorites to begin the season for the worst team in the American League and maybe all of baseball.
The middle is where the AL West could be very interesting as Houston, Texas and the don’t-call-us-Sacramento Athletics jockey for position to try to chase down the Mariners.
Houston still has most of its postseason pedigree and signed Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai in the offseason, but has some aging core pieces. Texas had overall the best pitching in baseball last season and some of the worst offense. The A’s are the opposite – really good young hitters but serious questions about their arms and playing in a temporary park that makes it even tougher to pitch.
Here’s a rundown of the AL West in predicted order of finish:
Seattle Mariners
2025 record: 90-72, won AL West, beat Detroit in ALDS, lost to Toronto in ALCS.
Key additions: 1B Josh Naylor, IF Brendan Donovan, DH/OF Rob Refsnyder, C Andrew Kninzer, LHP Jose A. Ferrer, RHP Cooper Criswell.
Key question: How does this group handle being the favorite?
Think about the seasons in Mariners history where real expectations were attached before the first pitch of the year. OK, maybe don’t. When the Mariners are expected to be good, they’ve had a history of underperforming. This is an entirely new, independent group that shouldn’t be saddled by the failures of the past, but there is a little bit of a “prove it again,” stigma that hangs over this team. Can Cal Raleigh be an MVP candidate again? Can Julio Rodríguez get off to a better start? Will Brendan Donovan fit in? Can the starting rotation avoid the injuries that cost them time last season? Will the Raleigh-Randy Arozarena spat from the World Baseball Classic linger? Despite all those questions, no team in the division is as talented.
Prediction: The first celebration takes place Sept. 19 in the clubhouse of Coors Field after the M’s clinch a playoff spot. The second happens Sept. 23 after beating Houston at home to clinch the AL West and home-field advantage through the postseason. There are some concerning land mines in the schedule – 16 road games in June; August road visits that include New York, Houston, Milwaukee, Toronto and Boston – but this is the best team on paper in the AL West going into the season and maybe in franchise history.
Houston Astros
2025 record: 87-75, second in AL West.
Key additions: 3B Carlos Correa, OF Joey Lopefido, RHP Tatsuya Imai, RHP Mike Burrows, RHP Ryan Weiss,
Key question: Can the Astros make another run?
For the first time in nearly a decade, Houston was home on its collective couches during the playoffs last year. Postseason baseball became an expectation for the Astros before falling short last season as the losses of Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker – along with a rash of injuries – left Houston out of the mix.
And there’s no guarantee they will be back in the playoff conversation this season. The addition of Japanese pitcher Tatsuya Imai gives the Astros an infusion of youth to a pretty good starting staff anchored by Hunter Brown. But some of their key offensive pieces are getting older. Jose Altuve is almost 36 years old. Christian Walker is almost 35. Carlos Correa is pushing 32. Isaac Paredes doesn’t have a position. Windows feel like they are closing.
Prediction: The rotation is just good enough and a lineup has just enough pop thanks to Jeremy Peña and Yordan Alvarez – if he stays healthy – that the Astros will find a way to hang around the playoff conversation. For all their issues last season, the Astros were still in the playoff race with a week to go. Feels like this year could be similar.
Athletics (of West Sacramento for two more years before moving to the corner of Tropicana Avenue and Las Vegas Boulevard)
2025 record: 76-86, fourth in AL West.
Key additions: IF Jeff McNeil, RHP Aaron Civale, RHP Mark Leiter Jr., RHP Scott Barlow.
Key question: Can they get enough pitching?
It sure feels like the A’s have enough offense in their lineup to create plenty of headaches for opposing pitchers. Between rookie of the year Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson, Tyler Soderstrom and the addition off Jeff McNeil from the Mets, there’s a lot to like about the A’s batting order and the potential for run production.
The pitching staff … well, um … can they get anyone out? That will determine if the A’s can vault themselves into the conversation with Houston and Texas as the teams trying to chase down the Mariners. The starting rotation is rather nondescript. The bullpen lost its biggest arm when Mason Miller was traded to San Diego in July. It’s a pitching staff that’s feels “meh” on paper. If they can graduate beyond that, the A’s might end up being decent.
Prediction: I wasn’t sure what to make of the A’s chances this year, so I turned to an expert: my son, who lives and breathes baseball. To quote him, “I think the A’s and Astros finish within three games of each other.” Sounds good to me. Here’s guessing the A’s barely leapfrog the Rangers and playoff fever (sarcasm font) takes over the Sacramento Valley as the A’s chase a wild-card berth into September.
Texas Rangers
2025 record: 81-81, third in AL West.
Key additions: OF Brandon Nimmo, C Danny Jansen, LHP MacKenzie Gore, RHP Jakob Junis, RHP Alexis Diaz, LHP Tyler Alexander.
Key question: Will the bats wake up?
For the longest time, pitching always felt like the issue with the Rangers. And then 2025 arrived and the bats were inexplicably silent. The Rangers ranked 26th in OPS and 22nd in runs per game. Losing Corey Seager to injury didn’t help, but the issues at the plate went well beyond his absence and ruined a season where the Rangers had the best overall pitching ERA in baseball.
Seager being healthy would definitely help. But the Rangers need something from the J’s – Josh Smith, Josh Jung, Jake Burger and Joc Pederson – in the lineup and must make up for the trade of Marcus Semien to really get the offense going again.
Prediction: Jacob deGrom, Nathan Eovaldi and MacKenzie Gore are a really solid 1-2-3 at the top of the pitching rotation. The Rangers also remodeled their bullpen with a handful of new additions. But none of that matters unless Seager and the offense reverts back to the level of production from a few years ago. The Mariners of the past are proof that you still need some offense, even with good pitching.
Los Angeles Angels
2025 record: 72-90, fifth in AL West.
Key additions: OF Josh Lowe, IF Vaughn Grissom, RHP Grayson Rodriguez, RHP Alek Manoah, LHP Drew Pomeranz, RHP Kirby Yates, RHP Jordan Romano.
Key question: Why does Arte Moreno still own this team?
If you take what Moreno said during spring training at face value, winning is not in the top five items of importance for Angels fans. The moves and decisions Moreno has made in recent seasons indicate he agrees that winning isn’t high on the priority list in his role as the Angels owner. They are a hapless franchise, led by an owner who seems more concerned with getting fans through the turnstiles of a dilapidated stadium and creating entertainment than putting any semblance of a winning product on the field.
This is a franchise that still has Mike Trout. Zach Neto is a very good young shortstop and there are a couple of decent arms in the rotation, including old friend Yusei Kikuchi. Otherwise … it’s a rather forgettable team and franchise at this point.
Prediction: Come mid-July, as Train’s “Calling All Angels,” plays on repeat inside Angel Stadium for the 9,000th time, Trout says goodbye and is traded to a contender with a chance at seeing the postseason once again. The Angels are bad; worst-team-in-the-AL bad. Maybe Moreno will realize it’s time to move on as well and finally commit to putting the team up for sale and ushering in the next chapter of a franchise that desperately needs one.