Will Mariners win 2026 World Series? 3 reasons they will — and won’t
Three reasons M’s will win the World Series:
1. Pitching
In 2024, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo and Bryan Woo combined for the best season by a Mariners rotation in franchise history, with 149 starts and a 3.27 ERA among them. Can they get back to that elite level? This Fab Five is back for a fourth season together. At their best, they are in the conversation as the best rotation in MLB. Woo had his breakthrough as a 25-year-old last season, earning his first All-Star selection and finishing fifth in the AL Cy Young Award voting. Gilbert and Kirby, now established veterans, have looked strong this spring, and their ace-like upside gives the Mariners pitching staff an incredibly high ceiling.
2. Lineup depth
Built around Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodríguez, Josh Naylor and Randy Arozarena, the Mariners already had one of the best lineups in the American League. Then Brendan Donovan arrived a week before the start of spring training, giving the M’s a bona fide leadoff hitter whose grind-it-out approach is exactly what this lineup needed. All five hitters at the top of the lineup were All-Stars in the past two seasons, and Donovan is a threat to lead the league in batting average and runs. The Mariners hit 238 home runs in 2025, the third-most in MLB. They still have power up and down the lineup — Cole Young and J.P. Crawford could prove to be the league’s best bottom-of-the-lineup combination — but it’s a more athletic and dynamic group that should be able to create scoring opportunities in various ways.
3. Momentum
The Mariners were eight outs away from their first World Series in October, and they’ve brought back virtually all the core pieces from that team, entering spring camp with as much optimism as any M’s team ever. Many of the Mariners players and coaches also relished in the Seahawks’ Super Bowl win last month, and they’ve talked about feeding off that positive energy from their next-door neighbors. The Mariners have the talent to win 100 games, and Seattle is looking to become the first city to win a Super Bowl and a World Series in the same year since Boston in 2004.
Three reasons M’s will not win the World Series:
1. Pitching
Injuries are a real concern for this staff. After its historic 2024 season, the Mariners rotation was hit by myriad injuries last season, with Kirby, Gilbert, Miller and Woo all missing significant time with various ailments. Given the max-effort intensity of modern pitching, injuries have become an accepted risk for every major-league team. It’s simply part of today’s game. Already, Miller has been sidelined this spring with an oblique strain, and the Mariners might need to turn to Emerson Hancock for at least the first couple of turns through the rotation to open the regular season. For the Mariners to reach their potential this season, they need to keep the rotation relatively healthy.
2. WBC hangover
The Mariners had more players (from their major- and minor-league roster) than any other MLB team participate in the World Baseball Classic, 17 in all. They also had more drama than anyone else. The Raleigh-Arozarena handshake theater reached viral proportions, and Arozarena’s unwillingness to address the issue added to the perceived beef. Is the bitterness real? Will it disrupt the harmony inside the M’s clubhouse? Besides having to monitor workload concerns for players playing in high-stakes games in March, M’s manager Dan Wilson also had to deal with the unexpected distraction between two of his best players. How long the drama lingers could put a damper on the start of the M’s season.
3. The Dodgers dynasty
After winning their second straight World Series last fall, the Dodgers went out and signed one of the game’s best sluggers, Kyle Tucker, and best closers, ex-Mariner Edwin Díaz. (And, yes, many are blaming the Dodgers’ outlandish spending for the expected owners’ lockout after this season.) Anything can happen in baseball, sure. But the Dodgers are overwhelming favorites to win their third straight championship, and any AL team advancing to the World Series figures to be the underdog to the L.A. dynasty.