Networks begin race to win 18-to-49 viewers

To the May victor go the season’s spoils.

The 28-day television “sweeps” race – which begins today and ends May 25 – will determine the outcome of the 2004-05 season among the young-adult viewers advertisers love.

CBS has the overall ratings race among total viewers locked up for the third consecutive year, while its three chief rivals are in a close race for second.

But among the 18-to-49 crowd, Fox has a razor-thin 60,000-viewer lead over CBS.

“It will be so close when sweeps starts that the network that wins the sweeps could end up winning” that demographic for the season, says David Poltrack, research chief for CBS.

WB and UPN are locked in their own battle for fifth place, separated by 10,000 viewers.

If Fox wins the age group – which hinges on the continued strength of “American Idol” – it will mark the 18-year-old network’s first No. 1 finish among young adults, thanks to the staying power of “Idol,” the Super Bowl, a surging “24” and new top-10 drama “House.”

NBC, which finished first among ages 18-49 last season and in nine of the past 10, will drop to fourth place for the first time. Down 15 percent this year and with new hits scarce, it’s the only major network to decline.

It will lose further momentum in May, once comparisons with last year’s finales of “Friends” (53 million viewers) and “Frasier” (25 million) are factored in.

Sweeps wins offer more than bragging rights. Although networks and national advertisers get ratings year-round, local stations in smaller cities use numbers for February, May, July and November to set ad rates.

It’s those stations that coax networks into hoarding big-ticket programming for such crucial weeks. And May’s sweeps brings with it the built-in appeal of finales for long-running series (“Everybody Loves Raymond,” “JAG” and “Third Watch”) and cliffhangers for new hits such as “Desperate Housewives” and “Lost.”

In a powerhouse showdown, “Lost” faces off with the “Idol” finale on May 25.

“This may be the most competitive sweeps ever,” Poltrack says.

ABC will finish third for the season, but the network – up 15 percent among young adults from last year – makes up for its audience shortfall by delivering in the “buzz generation” category, says Initiative Media analyst Stacey Lynn Koerner.

“More people are talking about their shows than the shows on any other network, and there’s something to be said for that,” she says.

But one thing’s missing: For the first time in several years, no new reality hit has emerged to join the ranks of “Idol” and “Survivor.”