Randy Mann: El Nino likely to hang around through fall, winter

A new El Nino began in March and continues to strengthen as we head into the summer. As of mid-June, it appears we have a “moderate” event, but may become a very strong El Nino later this summer or fall.

Based on the long-term forecast models, scientists believe that this El Nino – warmer-than-normal sea-surface temperatures in the south-central Pacific Ocean – will be fairly strong with a 90 percent chance it will be with us through the fall and about an 85 percent chance El Nino will be influencing global weather patterns during the winter of 2015-16.

The warmer sea-surface temperatures extend from the west coast of South America westward along the equator. Readings are as much as 4 to 5 degrees above normal along the coast, and about 1 to 3 degrees above normal along the equator, where the water is also very warm.

According to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology, there hasn’t been as much warm water in the tropical Pacific Ocean since the big El Nino event in 1997-98, which was the strongest in recorded history.

In addition to the rapid warming of ocean waters along the equator, there are also pools of warm water extending northward along the U.S. West Coast and into the Gulf of Alaska.

This new warm water phenomenon will probably be more noticeable during the winter. The southern portions of the country will likely be wetter than normal with snow droughts in the northern U.S. In other words, it appears that we’re going to see another winter with below-normal snowfall here in the Inland Northwest. During most El Nino events, especially the strong ones, California receives much heavier-than-normal rainfall.

Based on the current forecasts, the Golden State may see “flooding rains” this upcoming winter, a pattern similar to Oklahoma and Texas as the big floods in that region ended a decadelong drought in a matter of weeks. Remember, long droughts are often broken by floods, especially in California.