Marc A. Thiessen: Putin bluffed Biden. It won’t work on Trump.

President Donald Trump struck a Middle East deal by following a simple strategy: Do the opposite of what Joe Biden did. The same approach will help him bring peace to Ukraine.

How did Trump succeed where Biden failed at ending the war between Israel and Hamas? He replaced Biden’s failed strategy of “withhold, restrain and appease” with a one of “arm, unleash and obliterate.”

Biden repeatedly withheld or delayed the transfer of critical weapons to Israel in an effort to restrain Israeli military operations against Hamas. He stopped delivery of 2,000-pound bombs that Congress approved, and withheld or slow-rolled other weapons – including 500-pound bombs, Joint Direct Attack Munition kits that transform those bombs into guided munitions, as well as Hellfire missiles, tank and mortar shells. He pressured Israel not to carry out its successful offensive in Rafah – the very operation that allowed the Israel Defense Forces to find and kill Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. And he sought to appease Iran, beckoning it to rejoin the Obama administration’s nuclear deal, easing enforcement of oil sanctions and allowing Tehran to more than double its cash reserves, which had been depleted under Trump. Biden’s weakness helped drag out the war.

Upon retaking office, Trump reversed course decisively. He lifted Biden’s restrictions on weapons transfers to Israel and sent Israel those 2,000-pound bombs, as well as other weapons. He gave Israel a green light to carry out new military operations against Hamas. And he launched Operation Midnight Hammer, which obliterated the Iranian nuclear program and left Hamas’s patron weaker than at any time since the 1979 revolution.

Together, these actions laid the groundwork for his success in convincing Israel and the Arab world to embrace his 20-point plan to end the war with Hamas. Trump did not persuade Hamas to accept his peace plan. He used a combination of military, financial and diplomatic pressure to corner Hamas, leaving it with no choice but to release the hostages and agree to disarm.

That is precisely the road map Trump should follow to force Russian President Vladimir Putin to end his war on Ukraine.

As with Hamas, Putin has no intention of voluntarily giving up his campaign against Ukraine, so Trump will have to force him to the negotiating table by imposing unsustainable military and financial costs on Russia. The best way to do that? Just as Trump gave Israel the weapons Biden withheld, Trump should sell Ukraine Tomahawk cruise missiles that will allow Kyiv to strike deep into Russia – reaching previously impervious military targets with payloads far greater than Ukrainian drones can carry.

Putin claims giving Ukraine cruise missiles would be a “new stage of escalation.” That’s absurd. Putin has fired more 2,400 cruise missiles into Ukraine since his 2022 invasion, using them to target schools, children’s hospitals, residential neighborhoods, apartment complexes and shopping malls. Giving Ukraine the ability to respond with Tomahawks would not be escalation. It would be a proportional response to Putin’s escalation.

And unlike Putin, Ukraine would use the missiles against military and industrial targets, not civilians. With Tomahawks, Ukraine could take out the massive Alabuga drone factory in Tatarstan, which is pumping out thousands of Iranian-designed devices to attack Ukraine. Tomahawks could also be used against Russian air bases from which Putin delivers the cruise missiles and glide bombs that are devastating Ukrainian cities. They could finally take out the Kerch-Strait bridge connecting Crimea with Russia, making it much harder for Russia to resupply its forces there. And, importantly, Tomahawks could be used to destroy Russia’s oil and natural gas production facilities, which would obviate the need for secondary tariffs and sanctions on China to crush Russia’s energy exports.

The missiles would be a game changer that could inflict economic and military devastation on Russia and give Putin no choice but to sue for peace.

Putin understands this, which is why he is again playing the escalation card he used so successfully with Biden. For three years, Putin’s saber-rattling caused Biden to slow weapons transfers to Ukraine. At the start of the war, he blocked Poland from sending it even antiquated Soviet MiG-29 jets, then failed to deliver F-16 fighter jets until July 2024. He waited more than seven months to give Ukraine its first Patriot air-defense system, refused Ukraine’s request for Abrams tanks until September 2023, and refused until October 2024 to let them use longer-range Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) missiles. Each time Biden finally, begrudgingly, gave Ukraine the weapons it asked for, Putin’s threatened escalation did not materialize. If Biden had just given Ukraine these weapons in early 2022, when Russia was on its heels after failing to take Kyiv, Ukraine may have won the war long ago.

Now Putin is trying the same strategy on Trump. Unlike Biden, Trump won’t likely fall for his ploy. You don’t beat Trump in a game of escalation dominance.

In the Middle East, Trump brokered peace by reversing Biden’s feckless policies and imposing devastating costs in Iran and its terrorist proxy Hamas. He can do the same in Ukraine with one simple step: Send the Tomahawks to Ukraine.