First, We Settle Deion Bowl I Will S.F. Or Dallas Sign Sanders To Claim Inside Track In Nfc?

Maybe the rivalry between San Francisco and Dallas is this simple: The team that lands Deion Sanders goes to the Super Bowl.

At least that seems to be the gist of the bickering between Dallas owner Jerry Jones and president Carmen Policy of the 49ers.

Whatever, the NFC in 1995 isn’t likely to be much different from 1994 - San Francisco and Dallas at the top; eight or nine teams challenging to be the four who will then be knocked out of the playoffs by the 49ers and Cowboys.

So circle Nov. 12: That’s when San Francisco goes to Dallas with the winner getting home field in the NFC title game Jan. 14.

Is it that simple? Barring injury it is.

Both teams were hurt by off-season defections, as was everyone.

The 49ers lost their prime running back, Ricky Watters, to Philadelphia and new coach Ray Rhodes, the 49ers’ ex-defensive coordinator. The Cowboys lost center Mark Stepnoski to Houston; safety James Washington to Washington; wide receiver Alvin Harper to Tampa Bay; and pass rusher Jim Jeffcoat to Buffalo.

But if that cost depth, the talent on both teams is still one level above the rest of the conference, starting at quarterback with San Francisco’s Steve Young and Dallas’ Troy Aikman.

New York, Philadelphia and Arizona figure to be competitive in the East.

The Central remains mush. Minnesota, Green Bay, Detroit and Chicago all made the playoffs last year, but none stands out.

New Orleans and Atlanta could challenge for playoff spots in the “West,” where the newly transplanted St. Louis Rams are the only other team west of the Mississippi - by a half-mile.

Last year, the 49ers won the Sanders sweepstakes and he helped solidify the defense that had been one reason they lost two straight title games to the Cowboys. Then San Francisco went on to beat Dallas, 21-14, in November, and 38-28 in the NFC title game.

Then the 49ers crushed San Diego, 49-26, in the Super Bowl, the 11th straight time an NFC team has won.

This year, the 49ers came to camp without Watters and Sanders but with J.J. Stokes, the wide receiver they grabbed with the 10th pick of the draft, just as they had moved up a year ago to take defensive tackle Bryant Young. Stokes broke his hand in camp, but he’ll be back for the last three-quarters of the season.

They signed Alfred Williams as a pass rusher to push Rickey Jackson. Williams, who turned down $2.5 million from Cincinnati to take $250,000 plus incentives from the 49ers, gave the world the Jackson litany: “The money’s not important. I want to win.”

So with Young and Jerry Rice a given, the problem is the running backs - Derek Loville, Ricky Ervins and Adam Walker - plus second-year fullback William Floyd. But Floyd will miss the first few weeks with a broken foot.

One other problem is replacing Sanders if they don’t get him after baseball.

But Dallas has similar changes.

Dave Campo, another Jimmy Johnson assistant that Barry Switzer inherited, replaces Butch Davis as defensive coordinator.

Campo must find a linebacker to replace holdout Darrin Smith and is using Brock Marion to replace Washington, who was nearly the Super Bowl MVP two years ago. He also must hope Shante Carver, the disappointing No. 1 pick last year, can replace Jeffcoat as Charles Haley’s helpmate in passing situations.

But the biggest problem could be the offensive line, where leaks endanger Aikman and Emmitt Smith.

Erik Williams has come back more quickly than expected from last season’s knee injury, but his effectiveness is still a question; Nate Newton and Mark Tuinei are aging and Ray Donaldson, who will replace Stepnoski at center, is 37.

“I think we can challenge the Cowboys,” Dan Reeves said when the Giants opened camp.

Now, he may not be so sure. Injuries have kept six starters out of exhibitions and the only depth is at running back, where Tyrone Wheatley joins Rodney Hampton and Herschel Walker.

Still, the defense has no big playmakers and there’s no pass rush to talk about unless Keith Hamilton and Michael Strahan somehow find what they’re supposed to have.

There’s a pass rush in Arizona, where Eric Swann gives the Cardinals the best inside push of anyone in the league. Aeneas Williams may be the best corner-back few people now.

But Buddy Ryan went only 8-8 in his Arizona debut because he had no offense. Dave Krieg, 37, is the quarterback, but can Ryan resist firing him the first time he throws three interceptions, as he is wont to do?

Rhodes will turn around Philadelphia, which lost its last seven and finished 7-9. But it may not happen this year while he installs the “California offense” - if Randall Cunningham doesn’t grasp it early, Rodney Peete may.

The defense lost Eric Allen, its best corner, the latest in defections that started with Reggie White.

Washington, 3-13 in the first year of the Norv Turner regime, helped its defense with safeties James Washington and Stanley Richard and Marvcus Patton at linebacker. But Heath Shuler, in his second season, will get on-the-job training at quarterback, so the Redskins will be nowhere close to contention.

The Central is so open that even Tampa Bay might have been contended had not Craig Erickson been traded to allow Trent Dilfer to play quarterback.

Minnesota won the division at 10-6 last season as the Central became the first division ever to put four teams in postseason. But it was a tribute to mediocrity - the Packers, Lions and Bears all made it at 9-7.

The Vikings were Air Moon last season. But Warren Moon is 38, and has had a turbulent summer off the field. But Moon to Cris Carter and Jake Reed remains the team’s strength.

The defensive line lost Henry Thomas, who went to the Lions to join John Teerlinck, the defensive line coach. The secondary was also rebuilt - three of the four starters were allowed to move on.

Chicago went 9-7 without an offense: the Bears scored more than 20 points only four times. Steve Walsh ran the most successful version, 6-1 as a starter, to 3-8 for Erik Kramer. Lewis Tillman was a plodding running back.

So Rashaan Salaam, the Heisman winner, was drafted to add speed, held out, and found his way into coach Dave Wannstedt’s doghouse.

Detroit has Barry Sanders, which in this division can be enough to win. But he needs an offensive line and he needs help from Scott Mitchell, an $8 million question mark at quarterback after spending half of last season out with an injury.

Coach Mike Holmgren is surprisingly confident about his Packers despite the injury-forced release of Sterling Sharpe, the offense the last three years. Maybe it’s because of Brett Favre, who last year showed the ability to join Young and Aikman at the top of the conference’s quarterbacks.

But not only is Sharpe gone but so is pass rusher Bryce Paup. The running game is a question and there were so many injuries that the Packers were down to four linebackers entering their final exhibition.

Tampa, which won four straight only to lose the finale for its 12th straight season of double-digit losses, signed Harper and got Warren Sapp in the draft after Sapp dropped because of positive drug tests. With Santana Dotson and Eric Curry, he could give the Bucs the pass rush they’ve lacked.

New Orleans looks like the best of West’s eastern four.

Jim Everett found new life away from the Rams, Mario Bates looks like one of the league’s better young running backs, and William Roaf leads a good offensive line. But the defense, the strength during Jim Mora’s 10-year tenure, was down last year and remains down.

Atlanta is the last run-and-shoot team left - coach June Jones was one of the system’s originators. It plugs in Eric Metcalf, more of a runner, for Andre Rison, who was at the end of Jeff George’s shooting.

But the offense makes no difference when the defense is undersized, and the Falcons have shown nothing to indicate they’ve rectified that situation.

Then there’s Carolina, the expansion team.

It has around 40 players whose names aren’t unfamiliar, led by quarterback Frank Reich, the longtime Buffalo backup.