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Poll: Clinton Holds Big Lead In Electoral College Votes

By Jim Camden jimc@spokesman.com(509) 879-7461

As Bob Dole prepares to take the Republican nomination, a new nationwide survey shows he has a tough fight to defeat President Clinton in the place where the race will be decided, the Electoral College.

Individual surveys of the 50 states and the District of Columbia show Clinton with more than enough electoral votes to win re-election at this point in the campaign.

“It’s early yet,” cautioned Del Ali, an analyst for Political/Media Research, which conducted the surveys. Nearly all were taken before Dole selected Jack Kemp as his running mate.

“All kinds of things are going to happen” before the Nov. 5 general election, Ali said.

The surveys are the first to be conducted nationwide using identical methods, then linked to each state’s electoral votes, Ali said. Most polls are a smaller sampling that show the overall preference of the nation’s voters at that point in time.

But the election is not a national referendum, the pollster noted. It is a state-by-state fight for Electoral College votes.

The survey shows the magnitude of the task facing Dole, Ali said.

Clinton has an overwhelming lead in nine states and the District of Columbia, with 141 electoral votes, the surveys indicate. Among those are California and New York, the two richest Electoral College states.

He has strong, although less substantial, leads in 15 other states, which have another 159 votes.

Together, those states would give him 300 Electoral College votes, or 30 more than he needs to win re-election.

Dole has overwhelming leads in 12 states, but they only have 93 votes. He has strong leads in another four states, with a total of 42 votes.

Ross Perot, a possible nominee for the newly formed Reform Party, does not lead in any state.

Ten states could go either way at this point, Ali said. But to beat Clinton, Dole will have to win most or all of those states, plus overcome the Democratic president’s lead in several states where he leads.

, DataTimes ILLUSTRATION: Graphic: Tracking the Electoral College