Mistakes come from not learning

It’s been said that the only mistake is the one from which we learn nothing.

A few weeks back, we recommended selling Rams RB Steven Jackson. The statistical support was solid. St. Louis was running the ball 32 percent of the time, not enough for NFL running backs to make a fantasy impact (especially with Marshall Faulk getting much of the receiving touches). But Jackson has gone off since then. What happened?

Rams coach Mike Martz, who calls the plays, subsequently developed serious heart problems and had to step down for the season. Since he’s departed, the Rams have run the ball more than 50 percent of plays. Jackson has thrived in the expanded role. The lesson is to always be alert to circumstances that can change how players are used. Opportunity is as big a factor in predicting player performance as is talent.

Let’s again look at NFL defenses so we can better exploit matchups (stats do not include last night’s game).

The most important passing statistic is yards per attempt (YPA). There are seven defenses that you want to avoid, as they are top 10 in allowing the fewest YPA and also yield less than one passing TD per game. They are, in the order of lowest YPA (with TD passes allowed in parentheses), Ravens (5), Bears (6), Redskins (5), Jets (5), Bucs (2), Bengals (7), Colts (5).

On the other end, these teams are bottom 10 in YPA allowed while also yielding more than 1.5 TD passes per game: Niners (16), Patriots (13), Titans (17), Chiefs (14), Vikings (14), Eagles (13), Rams (16), Packers (14).

For running backs, these teams allow less than 4.0 per carry and less than a rushing TD per game (rushing TDs allowed in parentheses): Bucs (4), Bears (1), Panthers (4), Packers (2), Chargers (7), Steelers (5), Dolphins (5), Ravens (4), Seahawks (2).

Allowing more than 4.0 yard and one rushing touchdown per game: Bills (13), Texans (10), Cardinals (9), Redskins (9), Vikings (9), Saints (10), Cardinals (10).

Buy

Rudi Johnson (RB, Bengals): He’s scored only two TDs to date. But he’s had a run over 10 yards in every game, is over 4.0 per carry and never sees eight-man fronts because of the Bengals passing game. Cincy has the most red zone possession in football and, but he could easily be among the league leaders in goal-line carries going forward.

Mike Anderson (RB, Broncos): Tatum Bell is better. But Anderson is Mr. Inside and has as many runs inside the 10 as LaDainian Tomlinson (15).

Hold

Kevin Curtis (WR, Rams): The knee jerk is to get rid of him because St. Louis has a bye and Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce are due back. But “due” is the key word. The Rams downplayed Holt’s knee injury for weeks. Bruce has turf toe and plays on turf.

Jerry Porter (WR, Raiders): A perfect storm is brewing for Porter the next few weeks. Randy Moss is hobbled but distracting with his mere presence. The Raiders lost half their secondary last week and will be forced to put up 30 points every week. Plus,.

Sell

Fred Taylor (RB, Jaguars): Only the Texans and Niners have less red zone possessions than Jacksonville, so the TDs will be few and far between.

Byron Leftwich (QB, Jaguars): The Jaguars have three pass attempts inside the opposing 10 yard line all year. Jake Plummer has 16 (10 TDs).