Mariners can’t afford to stand pat

SEATTLE – The Mariners, as usual, are stuck in a precarious position as they pursue their latest pitching dreams.

They left the winter meetings in Nashville, Tenn., empty-handed (not counting R.A. Dickey, and we don’t), which in itself is no big deal. Nearly every team left Nashville empty-handed, after one of the most pre-climactic winter meetings in memory.

But as Seattle general manager Bill Bavasi continues trolling for an ace or reasonable facsimile thereof, the reality is this: They need him (or, best-case scenario, two hims) even more now than they did pre-Opryland.

That’s because the American League, its landscape already dotted with intimidating superpowers, became even more fearsome this past week.

The Tigers, by virtue of their stunning blockbuster with Florida that netted not only future MVP Miguel Cabrera but faded Cy Young winner Dontrelle Willis, catapulted back among the elite.

Think about a middle of the lineup that features Cabrera (.320, 34 homers, 119 runs batted in), Magglio Ordonez (.363, 28 HR, 139 RBIs) and Gary Sheffield (.265, 25 HR, 75 RBIs).

Think about a top of the lineup that features Curtis Granderson (.302, 122 runs, 84 extra-base hits) and Placido Polanco (.341, 200 hits, 105 runs). And then fill in with new shortstop Edgar Renteria (.332 with Atlanta), first-base convert Carlos Guillen (.296, 21 HR, 102 RBI), catcher Pudge Rodriguez (in decline, but a career .303 hitter) and outfielder Jacque Jones (token easy out). Yikes. The pitching ain’t bad, either.

Now there are five teams that have the potential to be dominant, starting naturally with the defending World Series champion Red Sox and the ever-powerful Yankees, still A-Rod fueled.

Throw in the Indians, who matched the Red Sox last year with 96 victories and nearly won the pennant, and the Angels, who won the A.L. West by six games last year, have already added Torii Hunter and Jon Garland but are still on the prowl for more, and it’s easy to see the source of Seattle’s urgency.

Stand pat in this environment, and risk getting crushed. (Some would argue it’s already hopeless for Seattle, but I don’t see it that way. Not with difference-making pitching still there for the taking, and the vicissitudes of baseball that sometimes interfere with a team’s expected coronation.)

However, the Mariners, coming off an 88-win season, are on the precipice between continued contention and undesired regression. Based on Bill James’ Pythagorean expectation of win-loss records (runs scored squared, divided by runs scored squared plus runs allowed squared, if you must know), their expected winning percentage in 2007 was .488 (79-83). For those who believe in such things, that’s an ominous sign that they weren’t as good last year as it may have appeared – in other words, ripe for a fall.