‘Tis the season for Christmas shopping lists. Sometime before the holiday, Gov. Chris Gregoire will let us know her spending plans for the coming year. She should leave most stockings unfilled. As she’s told her budget office, it’s time to close the checkbook.

That’s a shift from her first major supplemental budget in 2005. Then, she launched several initiatives she deemed “too important to wait for the next biennial budget.” Even with a half billion dollars in increased spending, the strong economy allowed her to push some $900 million in reserves.

Critics groused that the new spending should have waited. Washington and 20 other states write two-year budgets. The governor and Legislature set their priorities in the first year. In the second year they adjust the plan to handle must-dos, primarily caseloads and school enrollments.

That’s the textbook take on it. But two years ago, the governor had money to spend and a pioneer’s impatience. The Legislature had no interest in slowing her down.

It’s different now. Last month the revenue forecast showed the first downturn in several years, trimming $132 million from expected collections. It may be a blip, but there’s a lot of economic uncertainty. And the recent flooding may further dampen December receipts. With the state already spending more than it takes in, we shouldn’t take any chances.

Even before the revised forecast, the governor told agency directors to keep their appetites in check. No new stuff this budget. That’s back to basics, albeit too little, too late.

It’s not like they’re denying poor Oliver Twist another bowl of gruel. State government has been well-fed. After feasting at last spring’s budget buffet, there’s no reason to go back for seconds. The first trip through the line was more than enough.

Legislators increased spending this biennium by 15 percent, twice the rate of revenue growth. That unsustainable increase came after hefty budget hikes in the previous cycle. Overspending, like overeating, has become a habit. Yet, the gambles paid off. State revenues routinely materialized to bail out budget writers. In the hot economy, predicted shortfalls quickly evaporated.

When things are going well, it’s natural to increase spending to keep pace. Lawmakers see dollars rolling in, remember requests denied, and ask, “If not now, when?”

But they overreached this time, making promises that cannot be kept, even with robust revenue performance. With cash in the bank and an agenda to pursue, however, carpe diem won out over carping conservatives. They spent the money.

Now, as the pace of revenue growth declines, budget strains have begun to appear. State spending will be an issue in the coming gubernatorial campaign. The governor surely recognizes that holding the line in 2008 makes both good policy and good politics.

She’ll propose a tight supplemental budget. But Democratic legislators, particularly those in safe urban districts, may be less inclined to leave money on the table. Even with relatively conservative spending next year, lawmakers will soon face tough choices. New programs launched with great fanfare will take their toll.

Consider just a few examples.

Last May, the governor said the state budget provided a “down payment” toward improving education and pledged to increase future funding. The schools aren’t waiting, having filed a lawsuit to force the state to “fully fund” education. Whatever else that means, it means more money.

That’s not all. Tomorrow the task force appointed to find money for the state’s paid family leave program will recommend sticking it in the current budget, rather than levying a new tax. Initial estimates peg ongoing costs at less than $20 million a biennium, but they won’t stay that low. Entitlements grow. Increased benefits will drive up expenses.

Then factor in proposed spending for health care, climate change ideas, and environmental protection. All were popular Democratic priorities last session.

Add it all up and you quickly run out of money. The problem’s not with our tax system. State revenues surged with the real estate and construction boom. But it wasn’t enough. It’s never enough. As the boom ends and the economy slows, it’s time to balance the accounts.

A lean supplemental budget merely begins the rough reckoning.