Tough to say who’ll be IEL 5A runner-up

Which team will end up finishing second in the 5A IEL? I ask because this is for sure: It won’t be Lake City.

The Timberwolves will capture the league title and the host berth in the first round of the state football playoffs – even if they lost their top offensive threat, senior wide receiver Kyle Johnson, for the season.

The calendar says early October, and generally by this time I have a good feel for where teams are headed. But for the most part, I’m numb regarding the playoff potential of the other IEL teams.

The other three teams appear dead even. I was prepared to declare Post Falls the second-best team at this point, but the Trojans stubbed their toe against Lakeland.

I’m not sure any of the teams have a statement victory. Post Falls rallied in the second half to beat Caldwell 42-35. But that was a team the Trojans should have handled by a bigger margin.

CdA’s wins have come over 4A teams Sandpoint and Lakeland. The Vikings probably should have lost to Lakeland, which rallied from a 10-point deficit last week to beat Post Falls.

Lewiston’s wins have come against a down Pendleton, Ore., team, Hermiston, Ore., and 4A Moscow.

So there’s not what you’d call a quality victory there.

I’ve seen Post Falls and Coeur d’Alene. I haven’t seen Lewiston, but the Bengals seem to be trudging along at the same pace they were near the end of the season a year ago. They’re pretty much a pass-happy team with no serious threat of a running game.

I believe the second playoff berth will be decided when Post Falls visits CdA on Oct. 25 – a Thursday, instead of a Friday. The date was changed to avoid conflicting with state volleyball tournaments that are scheduled for the CdA area that week.

Of the three teams, it’s no doubt Lewiston has the toughest road ahead. The Bengals must travel to both CdA (Oct. 12) and Post Falls (Oct. 19). Including a regular-season finale with LC, Lewiston’s three biggest games are back to back to back.

Lewiston’s chances of winning a couple of those games are good largely because of senior quarterback Tom Kerr. Neither Post Falls nor CdA is particularly strong in the secondary. That means Kerr could dissect both.

What the Trojans and Vikings must do to overcome their secondary deficiencies is blitz Kerr, who isn’t the most mobile quarterback. They must apply heat early and often.

Of the three teams, Lewiston may have the edge on defense. When teams get into games in mid- to late- October, the team with the best defense usually wins.

In 4A, the Lakeland-Sandpoint game, Oct. 19 at Barlow Stadium, is shaping up to be a classic tug of war between two teams that are improving each week. This could be the year Lakeland breaks through.

The Lakeland-Sandpoint winner will have a great chance to advance to the state title game. That team will essentially play at home throughout the playoffs – like LC did last year – with the state final scheduled for the University of Idaho Kibbie Dome.

The District III (Boise-area) teams are down considerably this year. The power teams – Minico, Blackfoot and defending champ Pocatello – will be on the opposite side of the bracket.