Pakistan’s political crisis

ISLAMABAD – Prime Minister Yousuf Raza Gilani is preparing to face down the country’s hostile courts as a clash of institutions pushes Pakistan toward a political breaking point.

The Supreme Court threatened Monday to jail Gilani by issuing a contempt of court notice against him for refusing to revive a nearly decade-old corruption case against the country’s president, Asif Ali Zardari. The court ordered Gilani to appear Thursday to answer the charge, for which he could be disqualified from office if he’s convicted.

Pakistan’s U.S.-allied government is battling the courts and the armed forces, both of which seem determined to oust Gilani’s Pakistan People’s Party from power. The political opposition is pressing for early elections. Analysts describe the military’s effort as a “soft coup” that could push Pakistan back into the uncertainty of the 1990s, the last period of democratic rule here, when four elected governments were dismissed before their terms ended.

Rebuffing rumors that he’d quit, Gilani told parliament that he’d appear in court Thursday “out of respect for the institution.” But party officials said he wouldn’t comply with the court’s order to pursue corruption charges against Zardari, who the party has argued enjoys constitutional immunity from prosecution – which the courts are challenging.

Separately, the ruling coalition managed Monday to win a de facto parliamentary vote of confidence, which it had tried to paint as a resolution supporting democracy over a return to military rule. The opposition rejected the resolution as a ploy by the party to gain leverage against the courts.

Pakistan’s turbulent history of judicial and military action against elected governments – including court-sanctioned coups and one prime minister who was tried and executed – hangs over the current crisis. It’s thrust the political system into chaos even as the country faces energy shortages, fiscal troubles and calls by the United States for greater cooperation in ending the war in neighboring Afghanistan.

“If there is no democracy, everything will end. If there’s no democracy, we’ll all be swept away together, not just some,” Gilani warned parliament.