Dan Caesar’s Saturday AFC divisional playoff pick

Kickoff: 1:35 p.m. TV: NBC

Line: NE by 7 O/U: 48

Overview: New England has the top seed in the AFC and thus had a bye last weekend, when Baltimore gained an upset victory in Pittsburgh. New England averaged 29.2 points per game in the regular season, No. 4 in the NFL, but the Ravens gave up just 18.9, No. 6 in the league. So something will have to give, and that should be Baltimore’s defense. That’s because while the Ravens were fourth vs. the run, giving up just 88.2 yards per game, they were 23rd vs. the pass. And with New England relying more on its Tom Brady-led aerial attack (No. 9) than its ground game (No. 18), the advantage is with the Pats. Baltimore’s offensive strength is its eighth-rated running game, featuring Justin Forsett, but the Patriots are solid against the ground attack (No. 9). All that being said, Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been much better in the postseason recently than in the regular season, and two of the Patriots’ three losses at home in the playoffs since 2000 have come in three meetings with the Ravens. Pick: Patriots 27-23

Dan Caesar, St. Louis Post-Dispatch