Vince Grippi: Mariners still have a shot despite sweep

What is a contrarian?

Is it someone who thinks Congress is doing a bang-up job these days? Is it a person who loves heavy metal and kale?

Or is it the guy next-door who thinks the Mariners still have a chance to make the playoffs?

If the last one is the correct definition, then call me a contrarian.

They still have a shot even after opening their only August home stand with a four-game sweep. The negative type.

You know, four consecutive losses to the now wild-card holding Angels.

As weekends go, especially weekends in which you also celebrated the career of Seattle’s favorite Mariner, Edgar Martinez, it couldn’t get much worse.

The M’s went from being a season-best three games above .500 and a game up in the race for the second American League wild-card spot, to once again below the break-even mark and tied with Tampa Bay, two games behind the Angels.

Worse, there are now two teams between Seattle and the Angels – Minnesota and Kansas City – with Baltimore, which comes to the Northwest for a three-game series beginning Monday night, just a half-game further back.

Heck, even Major League Baseball’s website gives the M’s only about a 16 percent chance of making the postseason.

And why wouldn’t it?

The M’s are not only in a tailspin, but they are running starters to the mound whose major league resumes are either full of holes (Monday night’s starter Yovani Gallardo and Erasmo Ramirez), nearly nonexistent (Sunday’s loser Ariel Miranda and Marco Gonzales) or completely nonexistent (Tuesday’s starter, who was listed as “to be announced” late Sunday afternoon).

The lack of quality starters, let alone quality starts, has put a strain on what was the most reliable part of the staff, the bullpen. It’s been strained recently and looks to be about ready to snap.

And the offense, which carried the team to a 16-9 record in the four weeks following the All-Star break, has hit a lull, struggling against an Angels team that doesn’t feature a whole bunch of the A.L.’s top pitchers.

All of which would put the smart money on the M’s playing out the string and spending October watching other teams vie for the American League pennant.

So when have we every done anything smart? As usual, we will take the opposing view. Not because of our faith in the Mariners, but our lack of faith in the rest of the contenders.

Who you got?

The Angels? They are below the league average in just about every offensive category, and have the American League’s lowest OPS. Their pitching is a bit better, but they don’t strike out many and give up a lot of home runs, a pretty cruddy combination.

Baltimore hits the heck out of the ball, but may have the league’s second-worst pitching (ahead of Detroit), though the Orioles are neck-and-neck with Minnesota for that distinction. Kansas City is a bit better in both areas – the Royals are around the league average in almost every statistic at the plate and on the mound – but are nothing special.

In other words, a flawed Mariners team is trying to be better than a bunch of flawed other teams.

Sure, it hurts to lose four consecutive home games to one of the teams you are jousting with for the final spot. There is no denying that.

But that was last week. Opportunity awaits this one. Baltimore comes to town, then the Rays are out there to be had. The trip to Tampa begins a 12-game, four-city road trip with nine of those games against other wild-card contenders.

It’s tough, sure. But it also gives the Mariners a chance to make a quick move in the race.

The Angels grabbed control of the second wild-card spot with a six-game winning streak. If it can happen for them it can happen for the M’s.

After all, Seattle looked to be falling apart headed into the All-Star break. Then it pulled itself together and won a bunch of games.

Remember, the M’s don’t have to win every game. All they have to do is win one more than everyone else chasing the final playoff spot.

Contrary to popular belief, that’s still possible.