Commentary: Mariners again play ‘meaningful baseball’ until end, likely producing nothing

SEATTLE – Those standings you’re looking at are nothing more than freshwater ponds in the Sahara.

That win Wednesday was less about the Mariners keeping their playoff hopes alive and more about reminding fans of their missed opportunities.

By publication time, yes, Seattle was still technically in the postseason hunt – two games back of the Kansas City Royals and Detroit Tigers entering their games Wednesday night, both of whom hold the tiebreaker over the M’s. But come on. We are in miracle territory for a team that doesn’t perform those anymore.

That 8-1 victory over the Astros on Wednesday gave the Mariners (82-77) the series win over a Houston team that clinched had the division the night before. And that clinch came via a comeback win in a one-run game – the types of contests the Mariners used to dominate.

I wrote three months ago that the M’s ability to win the close ones boiled down to a lot more than luck – that their 17-7 record in such contests were, in part, due to their year-to-year experience in those cuticle crunchers.

At the time they had the most one-run wins (231) and highest one-run-game winning percentage (.570) in MLB since 2016. Those numbers got even more pronounced starting in 2021 – the year of the “fun differential.” Then something happened: Reality … when one run began to equal no fun.

Since the All-Star break, the Mariners are 7-14 in one-run games, the most recent of which was Tuesday’s 4-3 loss to Houston. Had they simply gone 10-11 in those contests, they would likely be playoff-bound come month’s end.

One of those one-run defeats may have been the most glaring loss of the season, when Seattle blew a 5-0 lead to the Rangers on Sunday before falling 6-5. That stopped a three-game winning streak that would have moved Seattle to within one game of the final AL wild-card spot and within striking distance of the Astros. Didn’t happen. That felt even more devastating than the eight-run lead they blew in a 10-9 loss to the Royals in June, which looks far more significant now given Kansas City’s place in the wild-card standings.

Look, math is math – and as long as the M’s have a chance to make the playoffs (fangraphs.com says the likelihood is 5.1%), there’s a chance this column comes back as cooked crow. But let’s call this season what it is – a massive giveaway.

Most pundits figured the Mariners had the best starting rotation in MLB coming into 2024. Turns out it might have been the best pitching staff overall. After Wednesday’s win, the M’s ranked first in MLB in starter ERA (3.41) as well as team ERA (3.50).

Encouraging? More like infuriating. Because as awesome as those arms are, the brass was never able to provide suitable offensive reinforcements.

The additions of Mitch Haniger, Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco were a trio of tribulations, as their combined WAR sits at 0.7 this season. And Randy Arozarena, the supposed stellar trade-deadline acquisition, has an OPS of .739 in his 52 games as a Mariner – worse than he’s had in a full year with any other franchise.

Question: How do you screw up a team with an unrivaled pitching staff and a former MVP-caliber center fielder?

Answer: Like that.

But this isn’t squarely on the front office. Top players get paid exponentially more than executives for a reason. And those players – namely that former MVP-caliber center fielder – didn’t perform up to par.

Julio Rodriguez came into this season two years removed from winning American League Rookie of the Year and one year from finishing fourth in the Most Valuable Player voting. His Wins Above Replacement (WAR) in those respective seasons was, 6.2 and 5.3. This year, with three games left, it’s at 4.1 – primarily thanks to a September stretch that finally reminded fans what he was capable of. Too late.

J.P. Crawford’s production – on offense, at least – was down. Ty France was released two-thirds of the way into the season. The lone source of consistency came from the increasingly impressive catcher Cal Raleigh, who has socked 31 home runs and has the best WAR on the team at 4.6.

Still, we appear to be facing another year of “meaningful baseball” through the final regular-season series that ultimately produces nothing. It has become the signature characteristic of a team that has reached the playoffs once since 2001 – a team that sits next to last in MLB in batting average. Even in their victory Wednesday, the Mariners hit .200 – going 8 for 40 while the Astros committed five errors.

After the game, Garver was asked about sneaking into the playoffs and gave the only answer he could.

“It’s not how you get into the tournament, you just want to be there,” he said.

Want is the key word. Can’t has been the defining one.