Washington braces for a government shutdown — as DOGE cuts continue

Government shutdown deadlines – and even full-on shutdowns – aren’t new for Washington, but this time, with federal funding set to run out Saturday after midnight, no one knows quite what to expect.

A drive by President Donald Trump and billionaire Elon Musk, who oversees the U.S. DOGE Service, to unilaterally shrink the government has led to the dismissal or deferred resignation of tens of thousands of federal workers. That means some of the disruption that a shutdown can provoke for federal workers or citizens who need government services is already here.

The administration’s push for cuts has also scrambled lawmakers’ negotiations, with Democrats – who in recent years have sought to keep the government open at all costs – opposing funding legislation as part of what they call a last-ditch bid to stop Trump’s attempts to exert more control over spending.

Meanwhile, Republicans – who have forced Washington to the brink of shutdowns several times recently in pursuit of budget cuts – are in charge of Congress and the White House and have lobbied their members to keep the government open.

And it’s still not clear what parts of the government would close in a shutdown: The White House budget office removed Biden-era guidance on shutdown plans from its website earlier this week. A spokesperson did not reply to requests for comment about how much of the government would remain operational during a shutdown.

On Thursday morning, the White House website that houses shutdown preparation instructions instead led to a page with an error message. The budget office, which would usually notify federal workers of the status of funding two days in advance, told officials on Wednesday to “hold for additional guidance from us before making any employee notifications,” according to a copy of an email obtained by the Washington Post.

There’s no precedent that most officials can recall for a shutdown fight that’s effectively about whether the government has the power to shut itself down.

“For nearly two months, President Trump and Elon Musk have been shutting down our government piecemeal, illegally shuttering programs, agencies, and now attempting to close entire departments,” Sen. Chris Coons, D-Del., said Wednesday. “The House Republican bill enables Trump’s and Musk’s devastating and unconstitutional cuts that have reduced our government’s ability to protect public health and safety, made it harder for seniors to get their Social Security checks and created an opening for China by dismantling our foreign aid partnerships.”

But a shutdown, some experts say, could play into the hands of the Trump administration and give White House officials broader latitude to reduce the scope of government. It could also offer a test for Trump and Musk’s arguments that huge swaths of the bureaucracy are wasteful and unnecessary – and wouldn’t be missed if they closed down and never reopened.

“Whatever your problem is,” Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla., chairman of the House Appropriations Committee, warned Democrats on Tuesday, “whatever your concern is, it’s going to be worse in a government shutdown.”

Trump and his budget office, led by Project 2025 architect Russell Vought, have asserted broad powers to halt spending on programs that Congress has already authorized, or impound federal funds.

That has ratcheted up tensions over legislation to avert a shutdown. Typically, negotiations center on policy disputes – but this time, a full constitutional clash is on the table.

The Constitution gives Congress power over federal spending, not the president, and lawmakers in 1974 passed legislation to control impoundments specifically to prevent a president from claiming the powers that Trump seeks to exercise by deciding which programs to fund regardless of what Congress decides.

In a move toward exercising that spending power, the House on Tuesday passed a bill that would extend funding at current levels through Sept. 30, sending it to the Senate. The measure passed the House nearly on a party-line vote, but in the Senate, it will need at least seven Democrats to get around a potential filibuster.

If the bill fails and the government shuts down, Trump will at least temporarily have more power over federal operations. That’s because in shutdowns, presidents enjoy wide discretion on exactly what to close, furloughing employees, and what to keep open, making workers perform their duties without pay. (Legally, all employees would be due back pay after the shutdown ends, whether they were furloughed or on the job.)

Some experts think that temporary leeway could help Trump and Musk reshape the federal government beyond the bounds of funding laws. DOGE stands for the Department of Government Efficiency, but it is not a Cabinet-level agency.

“Clearly there’s an implication in terms of what is essential and nonessential in the greater scheme of things even outside the context of a partial government shutdown,” said Baker Spring, who has advised GOP lawmakers in recent months on Trump’s spending powers as a member of the conservative Compact for America Educational Foundation.

Under the Biden administration, the White House’s shutdown contingency plans hewed closely to precedent, maintaining only functions required for national security and the continuity of government.

The Trump administration is not bound by those same arrangements, though. Typically, the administration would publicly update shutdown plans as the deadline nears so agencies know what to expect, but that hasn’t happened yet this time.

“The president will interpret essential and nonessential in a highly politicized way differing greatly from how it’s ever been done before, but I would be very surprised if he was able to shield the general public from a lot of the harm a government shutdown would bring,” said David Super, who studies government administration and constitutional law at Georgetown University Law Center. “Even when you declare something an essential function or a worker an essential employee, they don’t get paid. People’s willingness to work for an openly hostile administration for no pay is probably limited.”

The Trump administration has already attempted to dissolve the U.S. Agency for International Development, ordered the Education Department to fire nearly half its staff and is considering plans to cut tens of thousands of employees at the Department of Veterans Affairs, Social Security Administration and IRS.

Probationary employees who were hired recently have been fired at more agencies. About 77,000 employees across the federal government agreed to a deal offered by Musk allies under which they will stop working shortly but resign in September and draw pay until then. Federal workers can’t charge more than $1 to government credit cards.

All those moves mean atrophying agencies are beginning to mimic the symptoms of a lapse in funding. At national parks, lines have snaked past entrances as visitors wait for hours to enter. At California’s Yosemite National Park, visitors were worried they could be locked in bathrooms after the Trump administration fired the sole locksmith on staff.

Technology systems at the Social Security Administration have begun to break down, numerous employees told the Washington Post, after mass layoffs of probationary employees at the agency. More than 71 million people receive payments from the program for retirement and disability or survivorship benefits.

The IRS is processing fewer returns so far this year than last, according to agency data. Call wait times are up, officials say, after the agency shed nearly 7,000 employees last month, many of them hired to improve taxpayer service.

Those agencies, House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., has said, will not see their budgets cut this year to account for those staff reductions. But the House-passed spending legislation would let Trump continue withholding resources that Congress designated to pay for a full complement of staff and services.

“This is a different moment than we have ever been in. The DOGE work is finding the massive amounts of fraud, waste and abuse,” Johnson said. DOGE has overstated the savings it has found in federal accounts. “We’re going to scale down the size of the bureaucracy and the agencies, which has become the fourth branch of government. None of that was present or true before.”