Commentary: Julio Rodríguez’s summer surge needed, even with improved Mariners offense

SEATTLE – After Aaron Judge extended his enormous arms and sent a slider banging against a pillar beyond the bullpen, Julio Rodríguez graciously acknowledged greatness. After all, Judge’s solo shot May 14 was the hardest-hit homer (117.7 mph) at T-Mobile Park since Statcast began tracking a decade ago. It was also Judge’s MLB-leading 15th homer, cementing a series win.

Judge – who owned a .412/.497/.782 slash line in the wake of New York’s 3-2 win – earned the awe of fans and fellow All-Stars alike.

“Just what he’s doing, I do that on the PlayStation, maybe. It’s just the truth,” said Rodríguez, who robbed a homer and hit a two-RBI double in defeat. “You’ve got to acknowledge the fact that he’s doing so good. Being able to watch him play and do what he’s doing, it’s very special.”

Two weeks later, Judge – the Yankees’ 33-year-old slugger – is still floating above the fray. The 6-foot-7, 282-pound anomaly entered Wednesday leading MLB in WAR (4.7), batting average (.395), slugging percentage (.746), on-base percentage (.488) and hits (81), while producing 18 homers (third). He’s one-third of the way through one of baseball’s banner seasons.

But for the Mariners to win the AL West, Rodriguez doesn’t have to be Judge. He doesn’t have to be the best player in MLB. He doesn’t have to produce PlayStation stats.

He does have to unleash his annual summer surge.

It may be arriving early.

There are signs that Seattle’s 24-year-old center fielder is rounding into form. A notorious slow starter, Rodríguez entered Wednesday slashing an encouraging .293/.330/.511 with six homers and 18 RBIs in May. More notable, his strikeout rate has landed below 20% in just one full month of his nearly four-year career – when he slashed .429/.474/.724, stockpiled 30 RBIs and earned an 18.4% strikeout rate in an otherworldly August of 2023.

Entering Wednesday’s game against the Nationals, Rodríguez’s May strikeout rate sat at 11.3%. (The MLB average is 21.9%.)

Which, admittedly, doesn’t mean Rodriguez has arrived. His 49.1% ground-ball rate ranks 20th in MLB; he’d undoubtedly like to lift the ball more consistently. And though catcher Cal Raleigh – who sits second in MLB in FanGraphs WAR (3.2) and home runs (19) – is clearly the Mariners’ MVP, Rodríguez ranks tied for 25th in WAR (1.8) and 67th in wRC+ (119).

Rodríguez has room for improvement.

But given his history – such as a year ago, when he owned just four homers and a 27.4% strikeout rate on May 28 – there’s reason to believe he’s ahead of schedule.

“I feel good, just putting up good at-bats every single night and letting the result take care of itself,” Rodríguez said May 14. “All I can control is putting in that good at-bat, that good fight every time. That’s where I’m finding a lot of comfort.”

The surrounding context is less comfortable. Despite doing precious little to improve their lineup, the Mariners were one of baseball’s best offenses in March and April. Thanks to sizzling starts by Raleigh, Jorge Polanco, Dylan Moore and J.P. Crawford, among others, Seattle’s statistics were solid – unsustainably so.

While going 12-11 in May, the Mariners’ offense has reverted to the mean – which is still a seismic improvement from 2024. With baseball’s best rotation, plus Andrés Muñoz and Matt Brash manning the back end of the bullpen, even an average offense would win the AL West.

But given the injury issues surrounding starters Logan Gilbert, Bryce Miller and George Kirby, and the fact that Bryan Woo has yet to complete a full season, and the sudden reliance on Emerson Hancock and Logan Evans to effectively fill the gap … Seattle’s rotation is no sure thing.

Which is why Rodriguez has to do what Rodriguez does:

Warm up with the weather.

Specifically, he has slashed .260/.321/.421 in the first half in his career, with those stats spiking to .300/.355/.549 after the All-Star break.

Raleigh aside, it’s unclear how many other Mariners you can count on. First basemen Rowdy Tellez and Donovan Solano have struggled. Light-hitting rookie Ben Williamson may not be the actual answer at third. Right fielder Leody Taveras has provided uninspiring offense, but injured starter Victor Robles might not be back until September. After a prolific April, Polanco’s production has plummeted. Moore and Crawford have cooled, and Randy Arozarena hit five homers with 18 RBIs in March and April … and a single homer and four RBIs in May.

I’m not sure the Mariners’ offense is good, but it should be good enough.

Before the 2024 season, I wrote that the Mariners’ future might be fused to two critical questions:

1) Can Rodríguez be the best player in baseball?

2) Does he have to be?

Right now, I’m not sure anyone – not Rodriguez, not Raleigh, not Shohei Ohtani – can be better than Judge.

But Seattle’s supporting cast has improved enough that Rodriguez doesn’t have to be.

If the starting rotation stabilizes, if Raleigh continues to rake, if a teetering offense holds its head above water, then Rodríguez doesn’t need unrealistic PlayStation numbers.

Another sizzling summer would suffice.