Five questions for the Mariners as they open spring training | Analysis
The Seattle Mariners, who were just eight outs shy of reaching their first World Series in 2025, officially turn the page to the 2026 season this week as spring training gets underway in Peoria, Arizona. Pitchers and catchers officially reported to camp on Thursday and the team kicks off Cactus League play on Friday. As spring training begins, Seattle Times beat reporters Ryan Divish and Adam Jude answer five questions facing the Mariners as spring training begins.
1. What do you make of the Mariners’ offseason?
Divish: The Mariners’ offseason was pragmatic and prudent, given the circumstances. Like it or not, the franchise’s ownership isn’t going to let Jerry Dipoto have free rein and an unlimited payroll budget to acquire big-name free agents. But this should still be considered a successful offseason. They accomplished their main goal early – signing first baseman Josh Naylor to a long-term contract. They supplemented the bullpen, trading for Jose A. Ferrer, and filled an open infield spot by acquiring Brendan Donovan. Signing veteran right-handed hitter Rob Refsnyder was a smart move, giving them a deeper roster with better talent for situational hitting. This team is better than it was at this time a year ago.
Jude: This was as good as any offseason the Mariners have had in recent memory, bookended by the re-signing of first baseman Josh Naylor (five years, $92.5 million) in November and the trade for All-Star utility player Brendan Donovan a week before spring training. The M’s didn’t have many holes to fill coming out of the ALCS – this offseason wasn’t about the volume of transactions made. It was about quality. Naylor had quickly established himself as a core player for the Mariners late last season, and the Mariners targeted Donovan at the start of the winter as a vital piece of their plans. Add in power lefty Jose Ferrer out of the bullpen and Refsnyder off the bench, and the M’s accomplished all they expected to this winter. Donovan, in particular, makes this the most complete roster the Mariners have had since the 2001-03 era.
2. What are reasonable expectations for the Mariners?
Divish: My first year covering this team was in 2006. Over that time, I never entered a season thinking the Mariners could realistically make the World Series. Sure, there were times where it was possible if enough things went right. But this year, I expect them to win the AL West – not a usual prediction – and return to the ALCS. Think about this: With all their success last season, their obvious and expected strength – starting pitching – was just above league average with three starters missing extensive time due to injury. The pitching should be better this season and the lineup should be more consistent in run production, while striking out fewer times. But really it’s a mentality. This team knows it’s good based on experience, and it knows how to win.
Jude: This team is good enough to win the World Series, and when was the last time you could reasonably say that about a Mariners roster? In Cal Raleigh and Julio Rodríguez, the M’s have two of the top 15 players in the sport, both in the prime of their careers. In Bryan Woo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Luis Castillo and Bryce Miller, the M’s have one of the most talented rotations in the sport. In Andrés Muñoz, the M’s have an elite closer. The players have something to prove – Randy Arozarena, entering his platform season, comes immediately to mind, along with Cole Young, Luke Raley and Victor Robles. There’s a swagger about this team now, too. Coming off the sting of a Game 7 loss, they know how good they are, and how good they can be, and they’re embracing those expectations.
3. Over or under 50 home runs for Cal Raleigh in 2026?
Divish: Let’s be very clear here, Raleigh’s 2025 season will never be replicated by anyone, himself included. It was a magical outlier performance from a unique player capable of doing more from baseball’s most difficult position than his predecessors and current counterparts. Given how hard he hits the ball and the continued improvement in quality contact and his driven nature to try to improve, hitting 50 homers isn’t an impossibility. It will be difficult and I think pitchers will work around him often. I think he will finish with 49 homers this season, but … he will raise his batting average from .247 last season to over .265 this season while reducing his strikeout rate from 26.7% to under 23%. That will also lead to his walk rate (13.8%) to increase and his on-base percentage to jump into the .380s for much of the season.
Jude: Under. That’s not to suggest there will be a major drop-off in overall production for Raleigh, but there’s a reason (many reasons) that no catcher in the history of baseball had reached 50 homers in a season, much less the 60-homer plateau he hit in an unforgettable 2025 season. It’s impossible to think there’s any more Raleigh could offer his team, considering the demands of catching and his presence as a middle-of-the-order slugger. Whether he’s watching or DH’ing, Raleigh will find a way to maintain his elite status this season.
4. What are reasonable projections for the Mariners starting rotation?
Divish: The projections should be somewhere between the unbelievable 2024 season where it was the best rotation in baseball by every measure and last season’s somewhat underwhelming performance. Given their age and the innings logged over the past three seasons, at least two of the starters will spend time on the injured list. We will see Cooper Criswell and Emerson Hancock make starts. But I think the rotation will be among the top three in the American League if they can get close to 140 starts from their core five. I think this is the year that George Kirby puts it all together and is a contender for the AL Cy Young.
Jude: Four of the Mariners’ five starters – Castillo being the lone exception – missed extended time with injury last year, and health is the only real question mark about the rotation coming into this season. There’s no denying the talent, experience and potential with this group, which also has two high-end prospects waiting in the wings (lefty Kade Anderson and 20-year-old right-hander Ryan Sloan). The Mariners are hopeful for a full season from Woo, who is coming off a breakthrough season in which he made his first All-Star team and emerged as a staff ace. Meanwhile, Gilbert, Kirby and Miller all appear poised for a bounce-back season. The Mariners have built their foundation on pitching, and they’ll lean on this rotation again in 2026.
5. Does top prospect Colt Emerson have a chance to make the Opening Day roster?
Divish: To be honest, I went into the 2022 spring training thinking that Julio Rodríguez wouldn’t make the Opening Day roster. And then I saw how he’d reshaped his body and worked on his speed. I think I called him “Young Simba” because he carried the forceful presence of a lion. Everything he did commanded attention. Emerson doesn’t have that natural charisma and jaw-dropping explosive talent. But he’s damn good for a 20-year-old. He might be the most mature, intense prospect I’ve seen in this organization. His daily batting practice routine is like a veteran. There is a plan and purpose to everything he does on a field. It reminds me of how seriously Mitch Haniger handled workouts when he was first traded to the Mariners. Of course, Haniger was 26 at the time and had played five seasons in the minors and 34 games in the big leagues. By comparison, Emerson has played in three minor league seasons.
Coaches talk about having “intent” in your preparation. There is obvious intent in everything that Emerson does on and off the field. He seems to already have a good grasp on who he is as a player. Some players spend their career searching for that clarity. Could all of it result in enough success in spring training games to force his way onto the team? It’s very possible. The roster doesn’t set up well for it, but the Mariners can be creative enough to make it work.
Jude: He has a chance, sure. Emerson is the most polished 20-year-old the Mariners have had this century – it’s fair to say he’s even a little more advanced than Julio was at this stage – and because he’s such a well-rounded player he could force the M’s brass to make some difficult roster decisions at the end of spring training. But the club remains bullish on 22-year-old second baseman Cole Young, and the acquisition of Donovan gives the M’s flexibility and the ability to be patient with Emerson’s development – they certainly don’t need to rush him. The most likely scenario is Emerson opens the season as the shortstop at Triple-A Tacoma, with a chance to make his way up to Seattle at some point in the first half of the season.