Five pressing questions facing Mariners at season’s midpoint | Analysis

SEATTLE – Three months into a season of great promise, we still don’t have a great grasp on the true potential of this Mariners team.

There have been days when the M’s give you reason to believe in their grand plans of October supremacy. They’ll show up the next day looking nothing like the team from the day before. Such is the scattershot nature of Seattle’s first half.

The Mariners will reach the halfway point of the season Wednesday in Pittsburgh during a six-game road trip, and we’ll answer some questions to get you ready for the start of the second half.

1. What’s the biggest reason to believe M’s will win the AL West?

The Mariners remain the most talented team in the division, for one. They haven’t always played like it, especially against left-handed pitching, but we’ve seen glimpses of a very good team.

As cheesy as it might sound, maybe the biggest reason fans should believe – the team believes in itself. General feeling around the club is that the Mariners will eventually sort themselves out and start to create space for themselves atop the division, as so many expected at the outset.

A similarly relevant question: Is there any other team in the division worth believing in? At plus-19 entering the weekend, the Mariners are the only team in the AL West, and one of just three teams in the entire AL, with a positive run differential.

The Rangers can pitch but can’t hit; the A’s can hit but can’t pitch; the Angels remain a dysfunctional operation. The Astros, despite their dreadful start, have an MVP favorite (Yordan Alvarez) and they just got their ace (Hunter Brown) back, and they might be the biggest threat in the division.

2. What’s the biggest concern about this team right now?

Some nights it’s the lineup. Some nights it’s the bullpen. Injuries have weighed heavily in both areas.

The past two weeks, especially, the Mariners have just had brutal injury luck. The positive spin on that, though, is that none of the injuries on the position-player side are expected to be long-term. Randy Arozarena (hamstring) appears to be on track to return next week, and the club hopes Brendan Donovan (groin) can return before the All-Star break.

At that point, the lineup should be back to full strength, and if the M’s can’t sustain some momentum at that point, you’d have to wonder if it ever will for this offensive group.

The starting pitching has performed as well as anyone could have reasonably expected – leading the majors in strikeouts (418) and ranking third in the AL in ERA (3.71). Andrés Muñoz, meanwhile, appears closer to regaining his confidence after a shaky start to the season, all the more important with Matt Brash (right lat strain) out until at least August.

3. What are reasonable expectations for Cal Raleigh in the second half?

No one expected another 60-homer season from Raleigh after his magical 2025. But no one expected such a challenging start to 2026, either. Out for a month with an oblique strain, Raleigh returned Tuesday and delivered the go-ahead single against the Orioles. Though he had just two hits in his first 11 at-bats back, he did have as many walks as strikeouts (five) in four games, which has to be an encouraging sign. He doesn’t appear to be pressing as intensely as he was in the weeks before his injury, and if second-half Julio Rodríguez and second-half Josh Naylor show up behind Raleigh – along with the first-half Arozarena – that’s a potent top of the lineup. Raleigh doesn’t need to be a superstar; if the 2023-24 version of Raleigh resurfaces, this team will have a chance to pull away in the AL West.

4. How will the piggyback plan play out?

The new iteration of the piggyback appears to be the fairest option for all six starting pitchers. At least, that was the conclusion the group made. It’s a unique situation – a staff with six healthy and productive starters – and one most teams would welcome.

Luis Castillo, on paper, looks like he could eventually be the odd-man out. The 33-year-old right-hander has been better of late, posting a 2.96 ERA in his last five outings, but there is a case to be made that the Mariners should simply keep their five best starters on a normal routine and move Castillo to the bullpen full time.

Perhaps the Mariners eventually come to that conclusion, but for now they have maintained that they want to keep all six pitchers stretched out as starters. Once one is moved to a regular bullpen role, it could take several weeks to build back up to a starter’s pitch count if he were suddenly needed back in the rotation.

Another problem that hasn’t been discussed much around potentially moving Castillo out of the rotation: He is owed $24.1 million next season, with a $25 million vesting option for 2028. No relief pitcher in baseball makes that much money. Castillo’s greatest value remains as a starter – whether that’s with the Mariners or another team. As a trade chip, he will be most attractive as a starter, which no doubt is part of the reason he will remain in the rotation in the short term.

5. What will M’s priorities be at the trade deadline?

Adding a high-leverage reliever has to be the Mariners’ priority this summer. And given Brash’s status, the Mariners ought to try to acquire two proven arms to the bullpen. That might not be entirely realistic – just about every contender could always use a power arm, thus inflating the asking price each summer – but there’s little doubt that’s where the M’s front office will exhaust most of its energy (and, perhaps, its prospect capital) leading up to the Aug. 3 deadline.

There aren’t many scenarios that make sense for the M’s to make a splash for a hitter. Unlike last year, when they went out and acquired Naylor and Eugenio Suárez from Arizona in separate deals, the Mariners just don’t have an acute need at any single position. If anything, the M’s already have a crunch for playing time in several spots in the lineup, and that crunch will only get tighter when Donovan makes his return (at which point he’s expected to move into a super utility role).

The Mariners would probably consider a Seiya Suzuki-for-Castillo type deal that’s been suggested in various circles. The M’s could certainly use a stronger right-handed bat. The Cubs do need pitching, and the two teams have discussed Castillo trade scenarios in the past. How motivated the Cubs would be to make a deal like that is an open question. But, again, the Mariners are expected to at least listen to offers for Castillo this summer, if not outright shop him.

The Giants are one of the few teams who look like sure sellers, but none of the parts San Francisco would want to move appears to fit what the Mariners need. Even if they were a good fit, it’s highly unlikely the Mariners would be willing to take on any of the massive contracts owed to Matt Chapman, Rafael Devers and Willy Adames.